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Today we will be covering...
Today, we will discuss how earning projection correlated with the stock market returns.
What Moved the Markets
Strait of Hormuz Re-Closure & U.S.-Iran Escalation - Iran reopened the Strait briefly on April 17–18, then reversed course and effectively re-closed it over the weekend after the U.S. maintained its naval blockade and seized an Iranian-flagged vessel. Oil prices reversed sharply higher (WTI +4–6% in early trading) after Friday’s big drop, adding renewed geopolitical risk premium.
Trump Announces “We Will Raise Those Tariffs Very Soon” - On Saturday (April 18), President Trump stated the U.S. will raise tariffs “very soon,” reinforcing his aggressive trade stance. This triggered fresh discussion and some risk-off sentiment heading into the week, especially among import-heavy sectors.
S&P 500 Hits Record High Above 7,000 Despite Geopolitical Noise - U.S. equities continued their powerful April recovery, with the S&P 500 closing above the psychologically important 7,000 level for the first time. Markets showed resilience even as oil volatility and tariff rhetoric persisted.
As of yesterday evening, Iran has not sent a delegation and officially denies plans to attend the second round. JD Vance canceled its trip to Pakistan.
Some Pakistani sources are calling Iran’s refusal “posturing” to gain leverage, and claim Tehran may still be willing to negotiate.
Do You Trade/Invest Following Earnings Projections?
In the long-term, stock prices generally follow earnings, not necessarily with the same timing.
In the short-to-intermediate term, that's not true.
The market is always looking around the corner, i.e., it is a discounting mechanism.
Oftentimes, markets peak before earnings and reverse downtrends before earnings start to rise.
Here is a dramatic example from the seventies (credit to Elliott Wave International).
Something to be aware of.
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What’s Next for the Stock Market?
Despite the geopolitical uncertainty and confusion, we have seen a violent rally, not unexpected though.
The cycles and the wave structure alerted us to this possibility.
From extreme fear to greed in three weeks, short covering, and exploding volume in mega-caps call options. . .
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