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Today we will be covering...
Today, we will examine the dominant cycle on the monthly S&P 500 chart, the 28-year cycle.
What Moved Markets on Tuesday
Major U.S. indexes rebounded sharply after Monday's AI-disruption sell-off and lingering tariff concerns: Dow Jones: +370 points (+0.76%), S&P 500: +0.77–0.8%, and Nasdaq: +1.0–1.05%.
Main drivers:
Tech and software stocks led the rally as AI fears eased (e.g., software ETF up ~1.5%).
AMD surged 8–9% on a major multiyear deal: Supplying Meta with up to 6 gigawatts of AI GPUs (starting with custom MI450-based chips in 2H 2026), plus Meta getting warrants for up to 160M AMD shares (10% stake potential). Valued in tens of billions.
Home Depot (HD) up ~2% after Q4 earnings beat expectations (first time in a year).
Other notes: IBM recovered; consumer confidence improved; VIX dropped (less fear).
There was maybe also some front-running of Nvidia’s upcoming earnings release on Wednesday after the close.
S&P 500: 28-Year Cycle
I detected this 28Y cycle on the monthly chart.
It appears to be one of the main drivers of bull and bear markets; of course, other cycles play their roles too.
It has reached a potential peak area.
But, do not infer any short-term market timing from this cycle; one needs to allow for a margin of error/variability of 10-15% of the cycle period.
However, this cycle suggests that the next significant bull market may not start until late 2030s or early 2040s.
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What’s Next for the Stock Market?
As expected, the stock market continued the bounce from the mid-last week, albeit a choppy one.
The month-long sideways action with intraday swings must have been unnerving to investors. . .
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