Benner Cycles: When to Buy & Sell Stocks – 1875 Prediction Still Working?

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Today, we’re exploring one of the oldest and most remarkable long-range cycle forecasts in financial history: Samuel Benner’s cycle theory, first published in 1875. 

Check out our new Youtube video on the topic or continue reading below!

Benner, an Ohio farmer and former industrialist who went bankrupt, outlined his observations in the book Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices. 

His diagram — known as the Benner Cycle Chart — has been surprisingly accurate over the past 150 years. Apparently, the diagram was initially compiled by Tritch (1872), but it was not attributed to him.

According to the Benner cycles, 2026 is in the set of “Years of Good Times. High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds.”

Let’s examine it closely.

The 'B' phase corresponds to “Good Times.”’ These years correspond to high prices and to the period for selling stocks and other valuable assets. 

“Years of Good Times” are separated in an 8-9-10-year repetitive pattern. 

The Phase ‘A’ corresponds to Panic years, which follow a 16-18-20-year repetitive pattern.

Phase ‘C’ corresponds to Years of Hard Time. These are favorable periods to purchase stocks and other goods. They follow a 7-11-9-year pattern. 

How Did Benner’s Cycles Work in the Last 50 Years?

Benner’s Peaks (time to sell):

Benner’s Panic Years:

We observe that a rigid application of Benner’s cycles is not always accurate, but allowing ±1 year as a margin of error often aligns closely with major turning points. Remarkable for such a long (150 years) look-ahead time.

Will 2026 be a good year to sell stocks, and 2035 a good time to accumulate stocks? There is a good chance they will, not just relying on Benner’s Cycle Theory, but based on my own cycle and Elliott wave analysis. Ultimately, time will tell.

What Others Said About the Benner’s Cycles' Accuracy?

Dewey (1967), the Director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, assessed Benner's pig-iron price forecasts and considered them highly accurate.  He also regarded Benner's work as “the most notable forecast of prices in existence.”

Frost & Prechter book stated that the Benner’s Cycle has proved useful in the past when applied in conjunction with a knowledge of Elliott wave progression.”

Modern Take on the Accuracy of Benner’s Cycles

If you are interested in exploring further, McMinn examines interesting analyses and attempted improvements in an article. McMinn, D., 2022. Benner Cycles & the 9/56-year grid. Cycles Magazine. Vol 51. No 5. p 8-29. 

Note: One should realize that some cycles vary over time but generally return to their stable state. Their accuracy and duration are also affected by shorter and longer cycles, as well as “random” events such as new technological breakthroughs.