Market Confounds Bulls & Bears

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What Moved Markets

Volatile week with Nvidia's strong but "priced-in" results failing to sustain rally; AI disruption fears (software/jobs/private credit) dominated, pushing broader risk-off tone.

Wed (Feb 25): Indexes rose sharply ahead of Nvidia earnings – “Buy the Rumor”; tech led gains (Nasdaq +1.3% to ~23,152, S&P 500 +0.8% to ~6,946, Dow +0.6% to ~49,482) on broader optimism.

Thu (Feb 26): Nvidia reported blowout Q4 FY2026 results ($68.1B revenue +73% YoY, beat estimates; Q1 guidance $78B above consensus), but shares fell ~5%+ post-earnings on "Sell the News" and AI disruption fears. Nasdaq sank ~1.2% to ~22,878, S&P 500 -0.5% to ~6,909, Dow flat/near unchanged.

Fri (Feb 27): Hot PPI inflation data + ongoing AI/private credit worries triggered sell-off; Dow plunged >500 pts (-1.05%) to ~48,978, S&P 500 -0.43% to ~6,879, Nasdaq -0.92% to ~22,668. Month-end closed weak for tech-heavy indexes amid bubble concerns.

Financial Sector

• Financials were one of the best performers off the 2009 bottom.

• I warned a few times that they may be approaching a multi-year top.

• In the short-term, they are oversold and may bounce.

• However, the three dominant cycles on the weekly XLF chart indicate that they might be under pressure the rest of 2026.

• We will look at shorter XLF cycles and a few key financial stocks in the Pro newsletter.

• The private equity managers were hit hardest, in part due to troubles at Blue Owl Capital.

• My long-term Hurst Cycle and Elliott wave analysis from six months ago is still applicable.

BraVoCycles on X

• If you are interested in financial markets, you are missing a lot by not following me on X, as I do not have enough canvas space in the newsletter to post all my research, which I try to post on X. Also, I often post important real-time updates between the newsletters.

We just joined Threads. Follow BravoCycles on Threads!

What’s Next for the Stock Market?

• The stock market has been suppressed for a week due to AI disruption fears, intense rotation from mega-cap stocks, and expected US-Israel attack on Iran.

• Will the sound of cannons ignite a relief rally?. . .

To continue reading about what’s next for the stock market, US Markets, Elliott Wave and Technical analysis of US Markets, volatility, as well as commodities, bonds, forex, currencies and crypto claim your Free Trial to Premium Pro. . .

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