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Today we will be covering...
Today, in the Free newsletter, we will examine the Indian stock market, the SENSEX Index.
What Moved the Markets
Geopolitics dominated: Renewed clashes in the Strait of Hormuz (Iran attacking ships, US launching “Project Freedom” to escort vessels) spiked oil prices sharply (WTI briefly over $106). This triggered risk-off selling, especially on May 4.
Market reaction: Dow fell ~1.1% (–557 pts) on May 4; S&P 500 and Nasdaq also dipped modestly. Markets rebounded modestly on May 5 as traders monitored a fragile ceasefire.
Offsetting factor: Strong corporate earnings (especially in AI/tech) continued to support the broader uptrend and limit losses, and the NASDAQ 100 already made another higher high.
Geopolitical flare-up in the Gulf drove a sharp but contained pullback early in the week, with oil surging and equities dipping before a partial recovery. Earnings resilience kept the sell-off from worsening.
Indian Stock Market (SENSEX) – BRICS Continued
We have nailed significant turns in the Indian stock market in the last couple of years.
The daily chart cycle composite caught the end of March low almost perfectly.
It allows for some more strength going forward.
The weekly cycle composite (lower figure) is also still rising.
Looking at both charts, a cycle trough can be expected in early 2027, then up into 2028.
Note further below my X post that compares SENSEX and FXI (Chinese Large-Cap ETF), which also shows a cycle trough in the first half of 2027 and up into 2028; that composite did not include the 86W cycle, which provides a bit more granularity. Plus join Pro for more in-depth international market coverage!
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What’s Next for the Stock Market?
Geopolitical distraction was short-lived and pushed aside by strong earnings reports.
The stock market is starting to show its first yellow flags. . .
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