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Hey Market Timer!
Today we will be covering...
Today, we will examine Magnificent 7 ETF, MAGS, and Wilshire 5000 cycles.
What Moved the Markets
Classic "buy on cannons" reversal—initial war panic sold off hard, then relief rally on de-escalation hopes. Oil volatility dominated; tech resilience provided support amid broader risk-off tone.
Sunday/Monday open (March 8–9): Geopolitical fears (U.S.-Iran war escalation, oil spiking toward $120/barrel) drove sharp early sell-off; Dow futures plunged >600 pts, S&P/Nasdaq futures -1.5%. Markets reversed dramatically on Trump's signals that the conflict could end soon—oil retreated below $100, equities rallied.
Monday close (March 9): Major indexes staged a strong comeback: S&P 500 +0.83% to 6,796 (erased intraday 1.5% loss), Dow +0.5% (239 pts) to ~47,741, Nasdaq +1.38% to ~22,696. Tech/semiconductors led (e.g., NVDA +2.7%, Broadcom +6.6%), VIX dropped sharply.
Tuesday (March 10): Mixed/moderately lower open; lingering oil/Middle East uncertainty and macro caution weighed, but no major new shocks. Focus shifted to upcoming CPI, earnings, and Fed signals
VIX expiration on Wednesday often precedes some weakness in stock market indices.
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MAGS (Magnificent 7 ETF) Cycles
Remember my Magnificent 7 stocks series a few months ago?
It alerted us about pending rotation out of Magnificent 7 stocks.
MAGS ETF is down about 15% from the high.
However, MAGS cycles are warning of a rebound soon.
Its cycles show a trough forming about now, but it likely needs a bit more down (see the MAGS 40W cycle post on X below).
Investors may rotate back into them out of energy-sensitive and other cyclical sectors. Also note that QQQ is heavily shorted, which may provide additional fuel once the market forms a temporary bottom in March. Refer to my W5000 cycle analysis (see the W5000 post on X below).
But the bounce may last several weeks, then some more weakness should be expected, likely toward an Oct’26 low.
PS: Always provide some +/- margin around cycle peaks and troughs, as not all cycles are included in the analysis. Use cycle peaks/troughs as price-turning-point estimates. Do not infer the price level from the cycle composite's amplitude level.
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