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Today, we will look at Gold (GC) prospects.
Tariffs Taketh: Trump tariffs news caused selling in the US on Friday and overseas on Sunday night (morning overseas), which caused a significant gap in the futures and cash indexes.
Tariffs Giveth: But news about a preliminary deal with Mexico, and later Canada, provided a catalyst for a bounce. The market was destined to bounce, but perhaps not as quickly as with the catalyst.
Will there be a preliminary deal with China as well? China may not be so quick or anxious to budge. They study things thoroughly.
Where is Gold Headed?
I was bullish on gold for the last few years, but my bullishness is not wild now.
The chart below is a partial repost from Sunday’s MT&T Pro newsletter. I thought many might be interested.
Long story short, Gold (GC) still has an outstanding 20W cycle target, as shown below. Getting there could complete the Elliott Wave pattern I have been tracking.
The lower chart shows the weekly chart cycle composite of GC.
It is in the cycle peak area, but it “allows” for higher for a few more weeks or months.
Then, a multi-year consolidation correction can be expected.
Sentiment & Technical Analysis
The Fear & Greed Index dipped back into the fear range, but it just makes small moves between fear and neutral.
It seems that the big down gap did not scare many, perhaps because of immediate recovery and gap closure.
I posted another version of the chart below several months ago, but now it shows the absolute max in over 100 years.
This is a consequence, in part, of crowding in Magnificent Seven stock and alike, which is not completely unjustified as they had phenomenal earning growth. Still, a concentration in a very narrow market segment carries risks.
Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.
Very insightful chart for long-term market prospects. Sift through it.
Will “the reversion to the mean” work as usual?
At about 10:15 pm EST on Sunday, I posted on X that ES reached an ideal level to bounce off.
ES delivered.
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