Stock Market Summary

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The News Buzz

• “The Most Important Presidential Debate Ever: It Was an Unmitigated Disaster for Biden and a Rout for Trump. Democrats Will Have to Face Reality,” Wall Street Journal, July 29, 2024.

• Historian Allan Lichtman, who has successfully predicted past presidential election winners based on key characteristics, says that it would be a mistake for Democrats to replace President Joe Biden in 2024 election. (www.cnn.com)

• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices were flat in May, down from 0.3% in April. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.1% in May, also down from 0.3% in April, and headline and core annual PCE both rose 2.6%. The report met analysts' expectations across the board. 

• "Inflation is coming down," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab, in a mid-year OnInvesting podcast. "We're actually getting pretty close to the Fed's 2% target, with core PCE closing in on 2.6%. The Fed's target for core PCE was revised up to 2.8% from 2.6% in the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), so the current rate is already ahead of end-of-year expectations. It looks like it could hit 2% next year, which is a full year earlier than projected." 

• Stocks will fall 30% as the U.S. economy heads for a painful recession, strategist says. (www.marketwatch.com)

SPY – Bearish Engulfing

• After a week+, SPY had another bearish engulfing candle on Friday, a pop & drop. That is bearish.

• Friday's opening pop stopped at the underside of the gray channel.

• It found support at the 10D EMA. 

• Note the negative divergences in technical indicators.

• Needs at least below the red trendline to indicate something bigger on the downside.

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QQQ – Bearish Engulfing

• A bearish engulfing candle on Friday in QQQ also → bearish.

• Note negative divergences in technical indicators.

• QQQ stopped at the 10D EMA in the afternoon, so it can bounce a bit but then down, IMO.

Nasdaq – Sell in June

• Remember that I posted about the famous and reliable “Sell in May and Go Away” cycle for DJI in May. It has worked for DJI so far.

• An Analogous cycle for Nasdaq can be named “Sell in June and Go Away,”

• The strong seasonal period for Nasdaq is from November through the end of June.

• The average annualized rate of return during the bullish November-July period was 19.4%. 

• The average annualized rate of return during all other days was 2.8%.

Market Summary

Market Data

As of close on 28 June 2024.

What Has Been

• A “pop & drop” on Friday resulted in a massive distribution day. The pop achieved a marginally higher high for SPX and NDX. It was a true bearish reversal day in the US.

• Dow declined 45.2 points or -0.12% to 39,118.86. S&P 500 declined 22.39 points or -0.41% to 5,460.48. Nasdaq declined 126.08 points or -0.71% to 17,732.6. Russell 2000 advanced 9.35 points or 0.46% to 2,047.69.

• The major Asian and European stock markets had a mixed day.

• Bond yields were up across the board.

• One of investors' main questions is whether a presidential pre-election turbulence may cause some “black swan.”

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• Very short-term cycles warned us on Wednesday (Thursday morning report) that NDX may have fuel for two more days up. Indeed, that happened and was followed by a sharp reversal on Friday in NDX and other indexes. A classic bearish reversal day.

• Cycles point . . .

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