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Today, we will examine long-term US Dollar Index cycles in the Free newsletter.
What Moved the Markets
From Sunday through Tuesday, markets were heavily influenced by ongoing developments in the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, which drove volatility in oil prices and broader risk sentiment.
Oil prices spiked earlier due to conflict escalation (e.g., attacks and Strait of Hormuz concerns), pressuring stocks, but a slight pullback in oil on Monday/Tuesday helped fuel a rebound.
Stocks saw choppy action: Friday/Monday weakness from high oil and war fears gave way to a solid recovery on Monday (March 16), with the S&P 500 up ~1% to around 6,699 (best day in weeks), Nasdaq +1.2% (lifted by tech like Nvidia GTC conference buzz and Meta news), and Dow gaining modestly as traders bought the dip and oil cooled.
On Tuesday, markets extended gains modestly amid continued watch on Iran, oil, and upcoming Fed signals (rate decision on Thursday.
Bond yields saw moderate moves lower, while gold held steady.
Overall, the period reflected tentative relief from war-related oil spikes, tech optimism (Nvidia event), and dip-buying, but with elevated volatility and no full resolution to Middle East tensions.
US Dollar Index (DXY) – Long-Term Cycles
As I mentioned yesterday, multiple central banks' rate decisions, including the FED, are scheduled for this week.
This could cause some whipsaws in the US Dollar this week, which may still probe higher before a pullback.
The weekly chart cycle composite points lower into Aug-Sep of this year, which is largely aligned with the daily chart cycle composite presented yesterday.
We will explore DXY EW count and some USD forex pairs in the Pro newsletter.
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The US-Israel war against Iran is a wild card, but the cycles point down soon.
What’s Next for the Stock Market?
Today and tomorrow, there are plenty of potential for whipsaws and volatility.
Wednesday: PPI, VIX OPEX, possible leaks from the first day of the FOMC meeting.
Thursday: FOMC rate cut decision.
On top of that, the Middle East war is still a wild card. . .
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