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Stock Market is Driven by US-Israel vs Iran War
Oil and Geopolitical Headlines Dominate Risk-Off Scenarios
BraVoCycles Newsletter
March 15, 2026
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Hey Market Timer!
Today we will be covering...
Today, in the Free newsletter, we will examine TLT.
What Moved the Markets
The U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran dominated, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed (mines, threats), causing major oil supply disruptions—the largest ever per IEA. Oil prices surged (Brent hitting ~$100+), sparking inflation fears, higher Treasury yields, and risk-off sentiment.
Wednesday (Mar 11): Relatively calm after prior volatility. Dow -0.6% (47,417), S&P 500 -0.1% (6,776), Nasdaq +0.1% (~22,716). Oil rose amid ongoing Hormuz risks despite IEA reserve releases.
Thursday (Mar 12): Sharp sell-off as oil pushed toward/above $100. Dow -1.6% (46,678, -739 pts), S&P 500 -1.5% (6,673), Nasdaq -1.8% (~22,312)—all hit 2026 lows.
Friday (Mar 13): Continued pressure with elevated oil and persistent geopolitical risks (Iran vows closure). Indexes fell further (S&P 500 ~6,632, Nasdaq ~22,105, Dow ~46,558), extending weekly losses amid inflation concerns.
Overall: Risk-off tone, energy stocks outperformed.
TLT Cycles
The two dominant cycles detected on the daily chart indicate more $TLT ( ▼ 0.49% ) weakness into Summer.
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What’s Next for the Stock Market?
The FED meeting on Wednesday and OPEX on Friday could cause stock market whipsaws.
Any updates on the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, Hormuz status (Iran vows to keep it closed), or energy supply responses could drive volatility in oil, equities (risk-off), and safe havens. This remains the dominant wildcard, fueling inflation fears.
Multiple rate decisions by the global central banks (e.g., RBA on Tuesday; BoC, potentially others like BoJ, SNB, BoE, ECB around Thursday) could ripple through FX, bonds, and risk assets, especially if they react to oil-driven inflation. . .
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