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  • The U.S. semiconductor sector now represents 14% of total U.S. market capitalization — an all-time high that surpasses even the 2000 dot-com peak (roughly double the weighting at that time).

  • While momentum remains strong, the two dominant cycles on SMH's weekly chart are currently peaking. 

  • This is not a short-term call, but a longer-term cautionary signal.

  • The SOX/SPX ratio is now 75% higher than at the 2000 dot-com bubble peak. 

  • After that peak, SOX corrected -83%. 

  • Will history repeat? 

  • Granted, this cycle is different — most semiconductor companies now have strong earnings driven by AI demand. 

  • Still, valuations are extreme.

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