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Today, in the Free newsletter, we will discuss the “Sell in May and Go Away” Wall Street adage.
What Moved the Markets
Geopolitics dominated early in the week, with fresh hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal (including a potential one-page memorandum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz) driving a strong risk-on move. Markets hit fresh all-time highs on May 6 as oil prices dropped sharply (WTI fell ~7% toward $95).
Strong AI/tech earnings provided additional fuel: chipmakers and related names (Nvidia ecosystem, AMD, etc.) posted robust results, lifting the Nasdaq (+2%) and S&P 500 to new records on Wednesday.
Sentiment cooled later in the week (May 7–8) as Iran peace talks showed signs of stalling and oil rebounded, leading to modest pullbacks and consolidation. Markets ended the period mixed but near highs, with tech resilience offsetting geopolitical jitters.
Bottom line: A classic mix of de-escalation hopes + AI momentum pushed stocks to records mid-week, but lingering Middle East uncertainty kept volatility alive.
Sell in May and Go Away, Does it work?
The "Sell in May" scheme refers to selling the Dow on the 3rd trading day in May and buying back after the last trading day in October.
How do I interpret Carson's chart posted on X by @RyanDetrick?
If you were out of the stock market from May to October, you would have caught 57 out of 84 yearly highs over 75 years and missed 24 yearly highs.
However, there were many significant drawdowns during the May-to-October periods, especially in September-October.
Another metric to consider is the return during unfavorable May-October periods versus favorable November-April periods.
Here's the answer: - May-October (bearish): $1,000 → $847 - November-April (bullish): $1,000 → $82,666
There are nuances, e.g., bull vs. bear markets, but more on that later.
BraVoCycles on X
If you are interested in financial markets, you are missing a lot by not following me on X, as I do not have enough canvas space in the newsletter to post all my research, which I try to post on X. Also, I often post important real-time updates between the newsletters.
What’s Next for the Stock Market?
Strong earnings pushed aside geopolitical distractions, but the advance is narrow, led mostly by large-cap tech stocks.
Yes, the market is relentlessly pushing higher, the question is how long this can last.
We predicted the January top in December, and the end of March low in January, and pounded the table to go long in April.
If you have not watched my SPX cycle analysis on YouTube, you can still do it; It is a few months old, but it is still relevant. . .
To continue reading about what’s next for the stock market, US Markets, Elliott Wave and Technical analysis of US Markets, volatility, as well as commodities, bonds, forex, currencies and crypto claim your promotional rate of 85% off for 3 months now. . .
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