Post-FOMC “Sell the News” Continues

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Unemployment Rate – Cycle Analysis

• The unemployment rate data available from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis goes back to 1948. 

• The first figure below shows the four most dominant and stable cycles of periods 67, 116, 203, and 336 months, as obtained by spectral analysis.

• The second figure shows the cycle composite (pink line) comprising these four cycles.

• The cycle composite suggests that the Unemployment Rate will keep rising until early 1931.

• Incidentally, as I showed before, both the stock market and the real estate market are expected to have significant cycle troughs in the 2030 time frame, based on my longer-term cycle analysis of these markets.

• This adds to various indicators that point to a possibly weaker economy in the next several years.

BraVoCycles on X

• If you are interested in financial markets, you are missing out by not following me on X, as I do not have enough space in the newsletter to post all my research, which I try to share on X. Additionally, I frequently post important real-time updates between newsletters.

What’s Next for the Stock Market?

• 1-2 weeks ago, pundits were expecting a Fed rate cut and calling for Bitcoin to double in December and the stock market to reach much higher targets.

• Yet, the post-FOMC “sell the news” continues. We hinted at that possibility 10 days ago.

• As the pullback gets deeper, the traders and investors are wondering whether the top is in or not. . .

To continue reading about what’s next for the stock market, US Markets, Elliott Wave and Technical analysis of US Markets, volatility, as well as commodities, bonds, forex, currencies and crypto upgrade to Premium Pro. . .

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