OPEX Day Market Volatility

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US Dollar Index (DXY) – Cycle Composite

• The DXY weekly cycle composite comprises multiple cycles with periods from 20 weeks to 7 years.

• Although the cycle composite forecasts are less accurate far in the future, it is interesting to note that our long-term stock market cycles expect a cycle peak and trough in 2028 and early 2030s, respectively – Inversely correlated with DXY.

Important DXY Cycles

• The 3.5-year and 7-year cycles dominate the weekly chart.

• The 3.5-year cycle, known as the Khichin cycle in economic literature, is very stable and present in many economic series, stock markets, and individual stocks. 

• The cycle composites of these two cycles are shown below, overlayed on the weekly DXY charts.

• The composite of dominant 3.5-year and 7-year cycles provides a less noisy cycle “signature” of DXY.

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Follow BraVoCycles on X

• Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

  • A few days ago, I discussed how the post-election year has the worst stock market return during the presidential cycle.

  • My recent X post shows a few indicators that suggest that it would be challenging to have further stock market gains in 2025.

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