Market Week – From Dip to Flip

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What’s Moving Markets

• Weaker than expected GDP, and PCE inflation slightly above expectations cause the initial dip in the futures. The Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs (less-bad news) enabled a relief rally.

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate. This was well below the consensus forecast for a 2.8% increase in GDP.

• The December Personal Income and Outlays released this morning showed the PCE price index was up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY) in December, up from 2.8% YoY in November. Over the last 3 months, PCE inflation has increased at 3.1% annual rate.

• The core PCE price index was up 3.0% YoY in December, up from 2.8% YoY in November. Looking at the last 3 months, core PCE increased at a 3.1% annual rate.

• This is solidly above the FOMC’s target of 2%, and suggests the Fed will be on hold until we see more progress on inflation.

• The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump's sweeping global tariffs, imposed under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), are illegal, as they exceeded executive authority without congressional approval. This strikes down levies on imports from nearly all trading partners, potentially affecting ~$160B in collected tariffs. 

• In response, Trump tweeted that the US will use "other legal vehicles" to continue tariff policies, and he immediately signed a new 10% global tariff order while denouncing the justices as a "disgrace."

Crude Oil (CL)

• $CL_F ( 0.0% )  

• Crude oil price may be trying to find an interim bottom; CL price is going up, but not convincingly yet.

• What could be the reason?

• It could be following its long-term cycles shown below.

• Could it also be in anticipation of the possible US-Israel-Iran conflict? Suppose Iran closes The Strate of Hormuz?

• However, geopolitical news is not reliable for trading.

• For example, CL rallied hard from the 2020 bottom into 2022, following its cycles.

• When the Ukraine war started in early 2022, most people were calling for the CL price to rise to 200-300, but after one minor last spike to 120, CL reversed its course. Counterintuitive? Yes.

• We will examine additional CL aspects in the Pro newsletter.

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What’s Next for the Stock Market?

• Stock market bottomed on Wednesday, on schedule.

• A month-long sideways correction created conditions for a bounce.

• The question is how far the bounce can carry?. . .

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