Market Sold FED Rate Cut News

Typical Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?

Hey Market Timer!

Crash Expert: “This Looks Like 1929” → 70,000 Hedging Here

Mark Spitznagel, who made $1B in a single day during the 2015 flash crash, warns markets are mimicking 1929. Yeah, just another oracle spouting gloom and doom, right?

Vanguard and Goldman Sachs forecast just 5% and 3% annual S&P returns respectively for the next decade (2024-2034).

Bonds? Not much better.

Enough warning signals—what’s something investors can actually do to diversify this week?

Almost no one knows this, but postwar and contemporary art appreciated 11.2% annually with near-zero correlation to equities from 1995–2024, according to Masterworks Data.

And sure… billionaires like Bezos and Gates can make headlines at auction, but what about the rest of us?

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23 exits. Net annualized returns like 17.6%, 17.8%, and 21.5%. $1.2 billion invested.

Shares in new offerings can sell quickly but…

*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.

Today we will be covering...

  • Today, we will examine the S&P 500 in relation to the McClellan Summation Index, which is an insightful indicator of market breadth.

  • The FED cut rates by 0.25% but bond yield went up instead of down, just as I suggested on Tuesday.

  • Mixed earnings releases from some of the Magnificent 7 companies. It is worth paying more attention to them.

S&P 500 and McClellan Summation Index

  • The chart below shows a longer-term view of the S&P 500 and the McClellan Summation Index ($NYSI).

  • S&P 500 keeps climbing, but the McClellan Summation Index ($NYSI) is flashing a glaring negative divergence. 

  • In most instances when this setup has appeared, we have seen a sharp correction—or the start of a bear market. There were a couple of minor divergences, after which SPX pulled back slightly before continuing higher.

  • Yes, I am still targeting 7,000+ on $SPX, but ignoring this signal could be costly in the long-term.

BraVoCycles on X

  • If you are interested in financial markets, you are missing out by not following me on X, as I do not have enough space in the newsletter to post all my research, which I try to share on X. Additionally, I frequently post important real-time updates between newsletters. Follow @BraVoCycles. 

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The data that actually moves markets:

  • Congressional Trades: Pelosi up 178% on TEM options

  • Reddit Sentiment: 3,968% increase in DOOR mentions before 530% in gains

  • Plus hiring data, web traffic, and employee outlook

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Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk including possible loss of principal.

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