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Today, we will examine the 10-Year Treasure Yields Index $TNX ( 0.0% ) in the Free newsletter.
What Moved the Markets
From Wednesday to Friday (March 18–20, 2026), markets faced sharp selling pressure and heightened volatility, driven primarily by persistent inflation fears amplified by the ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran (now in its third week) and its direct impact on energy prices.
Wednesday (March 18): The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% as expected, but Chair Powell's comments warned that surging oil prices "can cause trouble for inflation expectations," with hotter-than-expected PPI data stoking concerns. Stocks plunged—the Dow fell ~1.6% (down 768 points to ~46,225), S&P 500 -1.4% (to ~6,625), Nasdaq -1.5%—marking one of the worst post-Fed reactions in recent years, with all sectors red.
Thursday–Friday (March 19–20): Escalating conflict saw tit-for-tat strikes on key energy infrastructure (e.g., Iran's South Pars gas field, Qatar's LNG facilities), pushing oil higher (Brent briefly touched $119/barrel before settling around $108–$112, up significantly weekly). This fueled further sell-offs: major indexes extended losses, with the S&P 500 down ~1.5% on Friday, Nasdaq -2%, Dow -1% (shedding 400+ points), capping a fourth straight week of declines and pushing some into correction territory amid energy-driven inflation risks.
Overall, the period reflected a "risk-off" shift—inflation concerns and geopolitical energy shocks overriding earlier dip-buying and causing a repricing of market sectors.
Best-Performing Sector:
Energy: +2.9% (clear winner, boosted by oil surging on supply disruption fears, no surprise here)
Worst-Performing Sectors:
Utilities: -4.9% (biggest loser, hit hard by rising yields and inflation concerns)
Industrials: around -3.3%
Consumer Discretionary: -2.9%
Curiously, the technology sector has been resilient in the last few weeks, as noted last time. Investors probably think that technology companies will be less sensitive to higher energy costs. But IMO, if high energy prices persist for several months, plus rising inflation, technology stocks will also be repriced as their profit margins decline. Moreover, AI hyperscalers are heavy electricity users and will also be impacted by this.
Where are 10-Year Yields Going?
Long-term yields are again heading higher.
The three dominant cycles from the daily $TNX ( 0.0% ) chart indicate higher toward mid-July or so.
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