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Today we will be covering...
Today, we will examine several forex USD pairs in the Free and Pro newsletters.
What Moved the Markets
Iran Opens the Strait of Hormuz — Market Explodes Higher
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open" to commercial traffic for the remaining period of the ceasefire — triggering a sharp rally. The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, the Nasdaq gained 1.4%, and the Dow surged 2% (900+ points). Yahoo Finance
Oil plunged in response — Brent crude fell 10% to below $90/barrel, and WTI dropped 10.6% to near $81 — both having opened the week above $100. Yahoo Finance That's a massive single-day oil move. Watch my oil cycles analysis in the latest YouTube video.
The announcement was reinforced by two other developments:
Trump told reporters Iran "wants to make a deal" and said the war "should be ending pretty soon," describing negotiations as going "swimmingly." He also announced a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and invited both leaders to the White House. TheStreet
A second round of U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad is expected this Sunday. TheStreet
Markets have now fully recovered all losses tied to the Iran conflict. MSCI's world share index hit a record high on Thursday and has risen 8.5% in April alone. Yahoo Finance
The big picture: The market is pricing in a deal. The risk is that talks break down again — which would snap oil back above $100 and hit equities hard. There are already indications that Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz again. As Schwab put it, market volatility is likely to remain high with headline risk driving short-term swings, and the key signpost is whether the Hormuz opening holds. Charles Schwab
EURUSD Elliott Wave Count
We nailed the January peak as the final thrust from the triangle for wave 4.
Subsequently, EURUSD dropped in seemingly five waves for circle-i and bounced in three corrective waves in circle-ii, right into the resistance region.
EURUSD may have peaked in circle-ii on Friday.
If my EW analysis is correct, EURUSD should press down in circle-iii, which could provide about 1,000 pips downside potential.
An alternative, a less likely count, is that wave 4 ended at the March low and that EURUSD is working on wave 5 to a new high; the main deficiency of this alternative is that the initial bounce off the March low was corrective, the green wave (a).
More details on EURUSD, DXY, and other USD pairs are provided in the Pro newsletter.
BravoCyles on Youtube
Where are oil prices going? Watch my cycle analysis on YouTube:
BraVoCycles on X
If you are interested in financial markets, you are missing a lot by not following me on X, as I do not have enough canvas space in the newsletter to post all my research, which I try to post on X. Also, I often post important real-time updates between the newsletters.
What’s Next for the Stock Market?
Well, this rebound was fast and furious as expected, and some.
As you know from my cycle posts and the YouTube video, we expected the end of March through for several months, and the cycle did not lie.
Immediately after the bottom, I emphasized buying the dips, but we did not have many, except in the first week after the bottom.
What’s next?. . .
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