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Hey Market Timer!
What Has Been
I alerted premium subscribers on Sunday that the week of July 4 has historically been strong for U.S. stock. It was strong for NDX and SPX but not so much for the overall market.
The US stocks mostly advance on anemic pre-holiday volume:
Dow declined 23.85 points or 0.06% to 39,308
S&P 500 advanced 28.01 points or 0.51% to 18,188.3
Nasdaq advanced 159.54 points or 0.88% to 18,188.3
Russell 2000 advanced 2.75 points or 0.14% to 2,036.64
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day, while major European stock markets were green.
Crypto leaders were down; they did not get the risk-on message from Nasdaq 100.
Treasury yields were mostly down, partially reversing gains since Friday. . .
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The News Buzz
Fed minutes showed policymakers acknowledged inflation progress but not yet ready to cut rates. Some even said rate increases could be back on the table if inflation progress stalls. Economic growth appears to be cooling, FOMC members said in the minutes, with consumer defaults a growing concern. The Fed should stand ready to respond to weakness, they said.
Soft jobs and U.S. services industry data this morning attracted buyers in Treasuries, sending yields tumbling and setting up what could be an interesting Friday morning as investors take in the June nonfarm payrolls report before the opening bell.
The Supreme Court’s immunity decision may kill all the criminal cases against Trump. Legal experts say the opinion could hamstring all four criminal cases Trump has faced, leaving prosecutors in several, if not all, unable to proceed.
TSLA Update
I alerted about TSLA’s up potential in early May and in early June after a pullback.
Now, it already reached a 20W cycle target, which extends much higher.
TSLA appears to be in the heart of a strong move higher.
It may consolidate somewhat but will likely still push higher.
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The timely post below on Tuesday morning “predicted” NDX pre-holiday behavior.
#NDX as expected. This should be it.
$NDX #QQQ $QQQ #NQ $NQ— BraVoCycles Newsletter (@BraVoCycles)
6:06 PM • Jul 2, 2024
Gif by AllBetter on Giphy
Market Summary
Market Data
As of close on 3 July 2024.
What is Next
Now that the positive seasonality and cycles in the peak area a logical question is what next.
Although I allow for slightly higher NDX and SPX, I expect a . . .
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