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Hey {{ first name | Market Timer }}!
Today we will be covering...
Today, we will have a Stock Market Special, covering SPX, NDX, DJI, RTY/RUT, and VIX.
What Moved the Markets
Hot inflation data dominated the week: April CPI came in at +0.6% m/m (3.8% y/y) on May 12, followed by a much hotter-than-expected PPI (+1.4% m/m, +6.0% y/y) on May 13 — the strongest wholesale inflation reading since 2022 — driven largely by surging energy prices.
Tech/AI resilience overrode inflation fears: Despite the weak inflation prints and rising Treasury yields, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record highs on May 13, led by strong gains in Nvidia, Alphabet, and other chip/semiconductor stocks amid ongoing AI enthusiasm.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lingered: The U.S.-Iran conflict remained in a fragile stalemate with continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz keeping oil elevated (Brent ~$100–108), adding to inflationary pressures, though markets largely shrugged off the risks thanks to the tech rally.
S&P 500 vs McClellan Indicators Update
Our trend fiend, the McClellan Summation Index ($NYSI), is indicating a trend change in $SPX ( ▼ 0.67% ), while SPX is grinding above the upper Keltner channel.
Is the $NYSI early? Yes, it could be early by a few days, but it is a red flag, and it is not alone; many breadth and technical indicators are sending warnings.
The McClellan Oscillator $NYMO ( 0.0% ) looks terrible.
See the Pro newsletter for the extensive cycle analysis of major stock market indices; it is a stock market special.
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If you are interested in financial markets, you are missing a lot by not following me on X, as I do not have enough canvas space in the newsletter to post all my research, which I try to post on X. Also, I often post important real-time updates between the newsletters.
What’s Next for the Stock Market?
The stock market can only go up, right?
Not sure about that.
Did you watch my YouTube analysis of SPX cycles?
In the Pro newsletter, we will explore what the “tea leaves” say. . .
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What happens when the S&P moves 3% during your commute?
We are living in volatile times. While you cannot control the state of international affairs, you can position your portfolio accordingly.
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