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Hey {{ first name | Market Timer }}!
Nike has lost roughly 65% of its value since the start of 2022. The Motley Fool The compounding causes:
China collapse: Greater China revenue fell 17% YoY in fiscal Q2 2026, and management now expects a 20% plunge in Q4 — with the China reset dragging through fiscal 2027. CNBC
DTC strategy misfire: Direct consumer sales fell 8% YoY in Q2, a steeper decline than the prior quarter, while gross profit margin decreased 300 basis points. The Motley Fool
Margin compression: Nike's gross margin has declined year over year for seven straight quarters, with input costs now facing additional pressure from Middle East oil prices and tariffs. CNBC
Converse collapse: Converse revenues dropped 30% in fiscal Q2, worsening from a 27% drop in Q1. CNBC
Turnaround timeline slipping: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America all downgraded the stock after Q3, with BofA noting the sales inflection is now nine months away. CNBC
Fundamental Metrics (current)
Market cap ~$67.6B. Trailing P/E ~29, forward P/E ~27. EV/EBITDA of 18.15. Current ratio 2.14. Debt/Equity 0.79. ROE 16%, ROIC 14%. Short interest ~3% of float. StockAnalysis
GuruFocus values NKE at $75.15 (vs. ~$44 price), calling it a "Possible Value Trap" with a GF Score of 80/100. GuruFocus
The P/E looks cheap vs. Nike's own 10-year average of ~37, but with a P/E of ~38 on compressed earnings, some analysts argue a successful turnaround is already largely priced in. The Motley Fool
Dividend yield is approximately 2.7%.
Check back tomorrow for Part 2!
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