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What Moved the Markets
The Hot May Jobs Report (Rates Sticking Higher): Friday’s nonfarm payrolls completely scrambled the Fed rate-cut playbook. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May—nearly doubling Wall Street consensus—while the unemployment rate held firm at 4.3%. Some say the algorithmic response was a sharp "good news is bad news" sell-off; bond yields aggressively spiked (with the 10-year pushing up to 4.54%) as traders rapidly priced out a near-term path for monetary easing. But the selloff already started on Wednesday.
The "AI Exuberance" Reality Check: After a blistering multi-week advance, the semiconductor and hardware AI theme hit a major patch of late-week profit-taking. Even though Broadcom beat Q1 top-and-bottom-line expectations, its forward AI revenue growth guidance failed to satisfy hyper-inflated investor expectations, causing its stock to plunge over 12% on Thursday. The sell-off triggered an intense rotation out of chips (dragging down leaders like AMD,ARM, INTC, MRVL, MU, QCOM, …), forcing the Nasdaq to take a back seat.
S&P 500, McClellan Summation Index & McClellan Oscillator
In the several days, I have been posting numerous technical indicators, cycles, and Elliott wave patterns that warned about the market's vulnerability.
On Wednesday, I posted again on X, that the McClellan Summation Index and Oscillators, interesting market breadth indicators, were waving red flags.
Fast forward two days, and what a difference two days make!
S&P 500 plunged sharply.
I often refer to the McClellan Summation Index as the swing trend indicator, as its turns usually signal changes in the market trends.
Yes, there are occasional whipsaws, but it often works well.
BraVoCycles on X
If you are interested in financial markets, you are missing a lot by not following me on X, as I do not have enough canvas space in the newsletter to post all my research, which I try to post on X. Also, I often post important real-time updates between the newsletters.
What’s Next for the Stock Market?
After positive seasonality early in the week, the market reversed on Wednesday, with Bloody Friday led by semiconductors.
We were not surprised. Pro subscribers were warned about the pending SOX and SPX/NDX peak, including in Wednesday’s newsletter.
Since we started the newsletter in early Nov’23, we nailed every high and low of significance with extraordinary precision. . .
To continue reading about what’s next for the stock market, US Markets, Elliott Wave and Technical analysis of US Markets, volatility, as well as commodities, bonds, forex, currencies and crypto claim your promotional rate of 85% off for 3 months now. . .
Here's Why We're Not Hyping the SpaceX IPO
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