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Today, we will examine the latest PPI, inflation prospects, and what to expect from the FED.
What Moved the Markets
U.S.-Iran War & Oil Shock — The Dominant Macro Driver
Oil prices are dropping and the stock market keeps pushing up, despite the failure of the US-Iran negotiations last weekend and the Strait of Hormuz blockade announced by the US. Investors are betting that the next round of negotiations will bring progress.
The IMF warned that the war with Iran will slow global economic growth to 3.1% this year while pushing inflation to 4.4% — a sharp departure from the prior trend. TheStreet.
Q1 Big Bank Earnings Kickoff — Mixed Results
Goldman Sachs beat on Q1 revenue ($17.23B vs. $16.97B expected) and EPS ($17.55 vs. $16.49 expected), with equity trading and financing rising 27% to a record $5.33B — though FICC trading fell 10% and the stock still dropped on the day. Investrade.
Wells Fargo shares fell 5% Tuesday after Q1 earnings missed on revenue ($21.4B), net interest income ($12.1B), investment banking fees, and credit quality — despite both revenue and earnings growing year-over-year. The Motley Fool.
JPMorgan, Citigroup, and BlackRock also reported on Tuesday.
PPI Report (March 2026), Inflation Prospects & FED
Headline PPI (final demand): +0.5% month-over-month (in line with February, below expectations of ~+1.1%).
Year-over-year: +4.0% (up from +3.4% in February; highest since February 2023, but below the expected +4.6%).
Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services): +0.2% MoM and +3.6% YoY.
Monthly figures are noisy and often corrected later.
The dominant cycle from the Sticky CPI data series indicates that inflation will be rising toward 2028.
The FED is expected to hold rates where they are. According to the CME FedWatch Tool), the probabilities are as follows: Hold (maintain current target range of 3.50% – 3.75%) 97.9%, and Hike (+25 bps to 3.75% – 4.00%) 2.1%.
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