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Today we will be covering...
Today, we will examine the German DAX Index in the Free newsletter.
What Moved the Markets
Iran Ceasefire & Oil Crash (Wed): A U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement triggered a massive market rally. WTI crude plunged over 16% to $94.41/barrel — its steepest single-day drop since April 2020 Yahoo Finance, while the Nasdaq jumped 2.8% and 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the green. Zacks
Fed Minutes (Wed): FOMC minutes showed policymakers leaning toward rate hikes, citing fears that elevated oil prices could reignite inflation. Yahoo Finance
CPI Report (Fri): March CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% annually — driven by a 10.9% surge in energy costs — but core CPI rose just 0.2%, a tenth below forecast, signaling underlying inflation remained contained. CNBC
TSMC Earnings Beat (Fri): TSMC reported a 35% surge in Q1 revenue, beating estimates, lifting chipmaker stocks broadly. TheStreet
Weekend Watch: The lates news is that U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Islamabad hit a road block and that the US delegation is returning home.
German DAX Cycles
The chart shows three dominant cycles detected from the daily DAX chart.
DAX bounced strongly from the daily cycle composite trough, along with the US stock market.
The positive bias can extend toward September, followed by a negative pressure toward the typical October-November trough.
The three dominant cycles on the weekly chart point lower toward mid-September.
Correspondingly, the daily cycle composite peak shown above may be left-translated, i.e., occur earlier than shown above.
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What’s Next for the Stock Market?
Pundits cite all kinds of reasons for the market rebound, including expectations that the US/Israel-Iran war will end soon with some compromise.
It very well may be true, but there are skeptics, given Israel’s posturing.
A few days ago, I said I was skeptical about the negotiation’s success. Just before going to “press”, got the news that negotiations failed and that the US delegation is returning home.
What is interesting is that we forecasted this reversal months ago, even before the Iran war was in sight. . .
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