Geopolitics Drive Market Volatility

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What Moved Markets

The period saw a volatile rebound-then-selloff pattern, dominated by the ongoing Iran conflict, oil swings, Broadcom earnings, and mixed economic signals.

• Geopolitical tensions remained the dominant driver: The U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran (ongoing since late February) continued to fuel uncertainty. Oil prices spiked sharply early in the week (Brent briefly >$80–$82/barrel on supply fears via Strait of Hormuz), then stabilized/stabilized partially, but renewed flare-ups (e.g., Iranian claims of tanker attacks) triggered risk-off moves.

• Oil volatility drove sector rotation: Energy stocks rallied on price surges, while airlines, travel, and cyclicals (e.g., Boeing, Caterpillar) lagged heavily due to fuel/inflation concerns. Gold and defense names saw safe-haven/defense demand.

Equities whipsawed:

• Wed (March 4): Strong rebound — S&P 500 +0.8% (~6,869), Nasdaq +1.3%, Dow +0.5% — as oil stabilized temporarily and dip-buying kicked in (erasing much of prior losses).

• Thu (March 5): Sharp reversal — Dow -1.6% (~785 points lower), S&P 500 -0.6%, Nasdaq -0.3% — as oil re-spiked >$80/barrel and conflict fears resurfaced.

• Fri (March 6): Continued pressure — indexes down ~0.7–1.3% midday (S&P ~6,769–6,780 range), with Brent clearing $90 in some reports and disappointing payrolls adding to caution.

• Broadcom (AVGO) earnings (Wed after close): Beat on revenue ($19.31B) and EPS ($2.05), AI revenue doubled YoY to $8.4B, strong Q2 guide (~$22B revenue, $10.7B AI). Stock initially popped ~1–5% after-hours but stabilized modestly; seen as supportive but not explosive amid high AI expectations.

Fed Beige Book (Wed release, covering Jan/early Feb): 

• Showed slight-modest growth in 8/12 Districts (improvement from prior flat), holiday consumer boost (higher-income strong, lower-income cautious), mixed manufacturing, stable banking, softening housing. Tariffs as key cost pressure (more pass-through), moderate wage growth, limited AI employment impact yet. Mildly optimistic outlooks overall.

Broader context: 

• No major U.S. data releases overshadowed geopolitics; markets priced in short-term energy/inflation risks but no full-blown panic (e.g., no Strait closure). Volatility (VIX likely elevated) reflected "buy the dip" resilience vs. renewed fear.

This week highlighted geopolitics overriding fundamentals — oil as the main transmission channel, with partial recoveries on hopes of stabilization.

Gold Cycles

• Gold in Dubai is heavily discounted due to airspace closures and export issues. 

• Dubai's gold is selling at up to $30 below the London benchmark. Buyers are refusing new orders to avoid high delivery and insurance costs. Many shipments are stuck; only a few ingots have been exported recently.

• But our gold analysis from a couple of months ago already told us that gold would be headed lower.

• The chart below is an updated daily chart cycle composite of gold futures, GC.

• For the Elliott wave chart, please refer to the Pro newsletter; There is a14-day Free trial right now.

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What’s Next for the Stock Market?

• It appears that the US-Israel war against Iran is felt more by international markets than in the US, but the US might catch up. 

  • If the oil price continues its rise, it may raise questions about world economies and affect multiple sectors. . .

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