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Hey {{ first name | Market Timer }}!

  • Stocks are loved, and bonds are not. Investors are not scared.

  • The bond market is no longer supporting US stocks.

  • The 10-year Treasury yield now exceeds the S&P 500 earnings yield by ~90 basis points — the second-widest negative spread in 24 years.

  • This means safer Treasuries are currently yielding more than the entire stock market.

  • Investors are effectively penalized for taking equity risk.

  • The S&P 500 equity risk premium has been negative since mid-2024, a rare situation historically associated with stretched valuations and elevated risk appetite.

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