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Spot vs. Futures: Something unusual is happening in oil markets. Spot prices and futures prices (which historically track closely) have diverged sharply. Spot crude recently spiked near $140/barrel while futures markets priced oil significantly lower, around $95. That gap doesn't stay open forever. The question isn't if it closes, but how.

Does spot fall to meet futures, or do futures rise to meet spot?

What Cycles Are Saying: Cycle analysis called the crude oil top ahead of time and the subsequent drop has followed the cycle composite closely. Based on the current cycle projection, crude appears to be in a topping process, with the composite pointing toward lower prices into mid-2026 before the next meaningful bounce.

Note: Cycle amplitudes do not imply specific price targets. Peaks and troughs are approximate turning points only.

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