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Today, we will examine the Bonds in the Free and the Pro newsletters.
What Moved the Markets
Geopolitical developments in the US/Israel-Iran conflict remained the dominant driver, with oil price volatility keeping markets on edge throughout the week.
Wednesday opened with caution as oil prices fluctuated on supply disruption fears. The S&P 500 closed slightly lower (-0.27%).
Thursday saw stronger selling pressure, with the S&P 500 dropping -1.51% and the Nasdaq falling -2.01%, as rising oil and bond yields weighed on sentiment.
Friday extended the decline, with the S&P 500 closing down approximately -2.0% for the day, marking one of the weaker sessions of the week.
Overall, it was a challenging “Market Twists & Turns” period dominated by energy-driven inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Risk-off sentiment prevailed as oil swings and higher yields pressured equities, creating a volatile backdrop heading into the final days of March.
Long Bonds ETF - TLT
TLT cycles suggest further weakness.
By implication, higher long-bond yields for a bit longer, which is a bit longer than indicated by the MOVE Index (see my MOVE post on X replicated below).
In the Pro newsletter, we will examine long-term TLT cycles, 30-Year Bonds, the 10-Year Treasury Yields Index, and the US Dollar.
BravoCyles on Youtube
Check out the new Youtube Video- Cycles Foresaw S&P 500 Weakness Months Ago…
BraVoCycles on X
If you are interested in financial markets, you are missing a lot by not following me on X, as I do not have enough canvas space in the newsletter to post all my research, which I try to post on X. Also, I often post important real-time updates between the newsletters.
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What’s Next for the Stock Market?
Markets are “crashing” into a cyclical trough predicted months ago.
I mentioned in the Pro newsletter that I was skeptical of [strong] Monday’s Trump-Tweet rally, which was messing with a technical analysis pattern.
I noticed finTwit variations of the meme below, fwiw:
“The stock market is crashing so hard from the Iran situation that it’s pressuring Trump to back down again — forcing him to TACO (chicken out).”
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