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100 Years of S&P 500: Is a Multi-Decade Correction Coming? Elliott Wave Grand Super Cycle
BraVoCycles Newsletter
March 05, 2026
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Check out our new Youtube video on 100 Years of the S&P!
We’re examining the Grand Super Cycle of the U.S. stock market, spanning more than two centuries from 1789 to the present. This perspective is essential for understanding where the S&P 500 stands today — and what may lie ahead over the coming decades.
Let us look at the Standard and Poor 500 chart during the last 100 years, the Grand Super Cycle.
In my Elliott Wave count, the S&P 500 is currently completing about a 90-year-long super-cycle wave (III). After wave (III) concludes, wave (IV) — a corrective phase — should follow. To place this in context:
Wave (I) topped in 1929 at the famous bubble peak.
Wave (II) bottomed in 1932.
The subsequent wave (IV) lasted approximately 9 years.
Given that the current wave (III) has already extended for more than 90 years, it is reasonable to expect wave (IV) to be proportionally longer — potentially 15 to 20 years or more.
Subsequently, a bull market in wave (V) of the Grand Super Cycle may take multiple decades.
Now, let us look at an alternative interpretation from Frost & Prechter.
This chart is from the classic text Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter.
In their labeling, the 1929 peak represents the top of the super-cycle wave (III), not wave (I), as in my count.
The blue annotations on this chart show my interpretation of the sub-waves until 1932.
If Frost and Prechter’s count is correct, the S&P 500 is now completing super-cycle wave (V) of the Grand Super Cycle — the implications are far more severe.
It would suggest the equity market is entering a prolonged period of stagnation or decline — potentially a 'nuclear winter' lasting 100 years or longer.
What Are Key Takeaways & Perspective?
Elliott Wave analysis can yield multiple interpretations of the same price pattern, often due to slight ambiguity.
My count points to a significant but ultimately temporary multi-decade correction ahead.
The alternative view from Frost and Prechter implies a once-in-a-century structural top with generational consequences.
Both scenarios highlight the importance of understanding the Grand Super Cycle framework when assessing long-term risk and opportunity in equities.
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