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Table of Contents

• Summary

• Technical Analysis of GBTC

• Technical Analysis of BITI

• Crypto Sentiment

• Quiz

• EW and Cycle Analysis of GBTC and BITI

• Evolution of Bitcoin Price Projections

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Summary

• Last weekend, we updated the Bitcoin analysis in the premium content and will add some additional insights today;

  • Did We Nail Bitcoin?

• See also my longer-term Bitcoin analysis in this YT video:

• Many investors do not play Bitcoin spot and futures, so we will provide some insights on GBTC and BITI;

• In general, I have a negative view of Bitcoin this year.

Technical Analysis of GBTC

• GBTC is Bitcoin ETF (ETF since last week), and Figure 1 shows its daily chart with PPO, RSI, and MACD;

• The technical picture is not positive as the indicators are negatively diverging from price, indicating at least a medium-term correction to come, if it has not already started.

• GBTC’s discount/premium to the net asset value (NAV) is shown in Figure 2;

  • Ycharts: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (GBTC)

• A year ago, GBTC traded at almost a 50% discount to NAV and now it is close to a “fair value”;

• Will investors in GBTC take the opportunity to make profits? Usually, good buying opportunities occur when GBTC trades at a deep discount to NAV;

  • Is the GBTC Discount to NAV a Good Arbitrage Opportunity?

Technical Analysis of BITI

• Figure 3 shows the 2 bars/day chart of BITI and technical indicators PPO, RSI and MACD;

• BITI is bouncing from oversold conditions with strong positive divergences in technical indicators developed over a couple of months;

• Opposite technical picture of GBTC suggesting at least an intermediate-term bounce.

Crypto Sentiment

• Figure 4 shows Crypto Fear & Greed Index;

• The greed receded from last week's extreme value but has a long way to go to get to the fear range.

Quiz

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