Did We Nail Bitcoin?

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Table of Contents

• Summary

• Technical Picture

• Sentiment

• Street Buzz- Why Layoffs if Prospects are Good?

• Cycles Update

• Major Indexes Cycle Price Projections and EW Coun …

• VXX Update

• Annex 1 – Commodities Corner – Gold/GC

• Annex 2 – EEM Emerging Markets ETF – Buy or Be Pat …

• Annex 3: Bitcoin Update

Summary

• We got the consolidation/pullback we “ordered” on Tuesday, but the market bounced promptly;

• The market may consolidate a couple of more days, but I expect higher into late January and some strength in very early February (pension funds inflows);

• But the mid- and long-term picture is not bullish due to:

  • Technical indicators;

  • Sentiment;

  • EW counts, and

  • Cycles;

• I expect the market to show weakness after January into March-April time frame;

• Recall my “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” speculation regarding Bitcoin. It was a nice bull-bear battle, in part related to SEC’s ETFs approvals, but as we mentioned in late December and early January, Bitcoin was due a turn in some major cycles anyway;

  • A more detailed Bitcoin update will be presented in Annex 3 (premium content).

Technical Picture

• Medium- and long-term technical indicators are not bullish even though indexes could still attempt to push higher in January;

• Figure 1 shows a SPX daily chart with PPO, RSI, and MACT indicators;

• Very strong negative divergences are developing, which is not positive in the medium term but would not prevent SPX from pushing somewhat higher.;

Sentiment

• We have “beaten to-death” sentiment indicators (CNN’s Fear & Greed, OPTIX NAAIM, AAII, …) and they all suggest excessive investors’ enthusiasm;

• “One more nail in the coffin” is shown in Figure 2;

• The lower window (red line is mine) shows the bullish % of consensus surveys of market futures newsletters and brokerage reports.

Street Buzz- Why Layoffs if Prospects are Good?

• Banks Layoffs: after significant layoffs in 2023 by big banks

  • Wells Fargo anticipates significant layoffs in 2024;

    • Citigroup announces it will cut 20,000 jobs as banks report lower Q4 profits

• Tech layoffs: after 260,000 layoffs in 2023, Tech is looking to cut jobs again in 2024:

  • Amazon, Google, Duolingo Cut Hundreds Of Jobs: Here Are The 2024 Tech Layoffs

  • Tech layoffs 2024: Discord, Google, Audible, and others add to bad start for the year

  • Google to layoff hundreds as big tech layoffs continue in 2024

• Are they still expecting a Soft Landing?

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