TSLA Special

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Today we will be covering...

• Market Summary

• TSLA Special

• Sentiment

• Let Us Know Why You Like BraVoCycles

• Cycle Analysis of Major Indexes

• EW Analysis of Major Indexes

• VIX/VXX Update

• Commodities

• Crypto – Bitcoin Deep Dive

Market Summary

Same ole, same ole. Indexes have largely been consolidating sideways today. There is not much new information. EW counts and short-term cycles support are still somewhat higher in most indexes, as discussed in the premium content.

This week was supposed to be seasonally weak until midweek, followed by the usual pre-holiday positive bias, which happened. Also, the usually strong first 1-2 days of the month can be expected due to the pension funds inflows. That fits OK with preferred counts.

Repeat from before:

The short-term analysis is becoming more in line with the intermediate—and long-term analyses, which suggests a reversal is due. The lightning could strike unexpectedly around the tops.

My longer-term expectations do not change. I will repeat from the weekend report: “Despite the market's resiliency and FOMO, I expect a correction in the next 2-4 months, initially.

Market data as of close on 28 Mar. 2024.

TSLA Special

I have problems updating TSLA prices today. Below are the charts I posted on X (former Twitter) last night. These are a kind of charts for price projections that I frequently post in the Premium content.

TSLA broke above the 40D cycle FLD (forward line of demarcation), generated a clean target of 193-198.5, and is consolidating above the FLD. But this is a countertrend move, as the 18M cycle is pressing down, and I will not be shocked if the target is not fully achieved.

A conservative target, using the log scale chart, for the 18M cycle is shown below.

For small price moves, the linear chart scale is appropriate, and there is not much difference between targets on the linear and log scale. The log charts may be appropriate for significant price moves, say on the order of >100%. In this example it is a close call between the linear and log chart. Therefore, I also present the 18M cycle target for the linear chart below. The target is to below 100. One should watch both target regions and look for signs of reversal from the target regions.

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Lesson – Elliot Wave Basics

The lesson I posted earlier this week received a great response. It was an advanced topic on cycle projections that should give you some ideas about the methods we use and their accuracy. However, it is readily implementable by those who know the basics of technical analysis and have access to charting software that supports offsets for centered MAs.

Elliott Wave Theory includes a set of rules and guidelines about repeatable patterns in financial instruments, not only in them. Elliott Wave structures exhibit self-similarity. That is wave patterns at one time frame are also noticeable at other time frames.

EWT is a complex subject to master. However, the basics are straightforward to learn and still provide useful insights—at least to understand me when I say, “Need another wave to complete a 5-wave structure,” or “It is a corrective 3-wave move/structure.” The chart below illustrates what I mean when I use these phrases.

The chart above shows a typical wave structure in an uptrend (turn it upside down for a downtrend). Each advancing wave, a motive wave, is a 5-wave structure consisting of 5 waves. After 5 waves are completed, one can expect a 3-wave correction down or sideways. Corrective structures can take many forms/shapes, and we will elaborate on them in the future.

At the end of an uptrend a 5-wave down can be expected.

In real-time EWT often offers multiple alternatives to consider. Sometimes they all lead to similar outcomes, sometimes not. In the former case it gives you confidence about the next steps. In the latter case you would like to seen another card or two before making an investment or trading decision, or to sets stops for risk management if alternative B plays out instead of alternative A. In smaller fraction of cases the message from EW structures is unambiguous, and that’s again a situation when one wants to pursue opportunities with more confidence.

Last but not least, one wants to use EWT in conjunction with standard technical analysis, or in addition by using also insights form time cycles and cycles projection to increase the confidence about next steps. That’s what we do at BraVoCycles.

When you have time to study, check out the resources below to understand the basics of EWT.

EWT tutorial from StockCharts

This video with real-world examples is also informative about EW basics:

Sentiment

I posted a similar chart a couple of times before. Too much bullishness in the tech sector. It is a similar picture for NASDAQ/DJI. It will revert to the mean. Draw your conclusions.

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