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Today we will be covering...

• Market Summary

• Technical Analysis

• Liquidity

• Sentiment

• Crypto

• Cycle Analysis of Major Indexes

• EW Analysis of Major Indexes

• VIX/VXX Update

• Bonds

• Forex

Market Summary

Based on the detailed analysis of the premium part, it is reasonable to expect an additional push higher in the next 1-2 days. It fits with quad witching OPEX on Friday: up into OPEX, whipsaws on Friday, then down. This is all my speculation, but it is supported by my analysis insights.

The bounce from Friday's bearish engulfing was anticipated and is welcomed. It is an opportunity to raise more cash for some people.

The short-term analysis is getting more in line with the intermediate—and long-term analyses, which suggests a reversal is due. The lighting could strike unexpectedly around tops.

My longer-term expectations do not change. I will repeat from the weekend report: “Despite the market's resiliency and FOMO, I expect a correction in the next 2-4 months, initially.

Market data as of 4 pm EST on 13 Mar. 2024.

Technical Analysis

Did we have a Bull Trap in NDX last week?

Below is one type of chart which we use in the Premium content that combines Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci levels and Technical Analysis.

It is “a picture-perfect” technical analysis chart suggesting that we had a top in NDX last week, although one more pop for a slightly bigger ending diagonal (ED) is not precluded.

•  EWT: I can count 5 waves up since the October low for a complete EW structure (warning: but just that you can count 5 waves does not mean that the move is complete; it could extend, and that’s why it is important to look at other things too) and with an obvious blue ED;

•  Fibonacci: fib extension levels generally follow typical relationships and

•  TA: a rising wedge in the price pattern is accompanied by negative divergences in RSI and MACD.

• Cycles (not shown) also indicate a weakness in NDX in the coming months.

I like it when I get a “synchronous” message from these 4 lags of my analysis approach!

Bearish Engulfing in SPX was invalidated! It doe not mean it was not a good message. As I said on Sunday, “a bounce would be a gift.”

Liquidity

Money Market assets at record highs. Eventually good part of them will find its way into some investments. The question is where? Stocks, Bonds, Crypto, …?

Traditionally the central banks assets correlated with SPX. What has changed recently? What gives?

For my updates between newsletters, follow me on X (formerly Twitter):

Sentiment

Momentum crowding continues. It is like in 2000. What happened then?

Investors Intelligence Survey: Bears at extreme lows! Not seen in this chart but it is at about 32-year minimum!

Crypto

As of 4 pm EST on 7 Mar, 2024.

Bitcoin’s cycles are peaking. It could keep pushing higher a bit longer but it should turn down decisively. I will be watching Bitcoin to drop below the gray FLD (forward line of demarcation) band for the 20D cycle to start generating lower targets.

eBook: 3-Year US Stock Market Outlook

The stock market will exhibit significant volatility this year, IMO. To prepare for market swings down and up in the next couple of years, read our eBook about the stock market outlook for 2024-2026. To get it for FREE, share the link below with your friends, family and on social media and if 2 friends subscribe to BraVoCycles Newsletter using your link, as confirmed by Beehiiv.

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