- BraVoCycles Newsletter
- Posts
- Time is Running Out
Time is Running Out
BraVoCycles Newsletter
March 03, 2024
|
Howdy Market Timers,
A stock market top is on the horizon. Our premium newsletters offer incredible guidance to help you navigate turbulent markets. It is a must for serious traders/investors. A value that you cannot find elsewhere.
To receive 2x a week guidance and insights on major market indexes, subscribe now at $9/month (less than 2 coffees)
Subscribe to Market Twists & Turns now for $9!
Or for 4x a week receive coverage of major stock indexes, bonds, commodities, crypto, forex, and stocks/ETF, subscribe now at $29/month
Today we will be covering...
Thank you for your responsiveness to our sponsor and partner ads. These help us to publish this newsletter.
Today, we selected the following partners’ newsletters in finance/trading/investing:
Get free daily HOT STOCK trading ideas, learn new OPTIONS TRADING STRATEGIES, and real-money TRADE ALERTS from world-famous 20-year trading veteran, Jeff Bishop
The #1 Source for the Latest Crypto Trends and Alpha
Market Summary
We have been waiting for the end of negative February seasonality, early March positive seasonality and a market pop. We got that late Thursday (anticipation of March 1 buying) and March 1 buying by pension funds. Could it extend for another 1-2 days? Yes, it could. A few indexes have targets higher between 0.5% and 3%. But cycles and at least some Elliott Wave counts are warning us that a turn is around the corner. It could start any day now. Below SPX 5048 and into the 2/22 gap would be the first indication that a top of significance has formed.
Despite the market's resiliency and FOMO, I expect a correction in the next 2-4 months initially. Raising cash on the rips is not bad when the market is overbought.
Market data as of 7 pm EST on 1 Mar. 2024.
For my updates between newsletters, follow me on X (formerly Twitter):
Technical Analysis
The two amongst most speculative financial instruments, Bitcoin and TQQQ (Proshares 3X QQQ Bull) are highly correlated. What does this suggest? Maybe this should go to the sentiment section?
The total Put/Call Ratio is very low. This suggests at least a technical correction.
SPX monthly technical divergences. Two consecutive closes above the upper Bollinger Band (BB). It typically revisits the lower BB, which is now below 3,500 and falling. But this is not a precise short-term signal.
Volatility - VIX
While SPX has been making new highs since December, VIX has been making higher lows. This positive multi-month divergence suggests a multi-month correction in SPX.
Green arrows mark new Moons every 29.5 days. As one can see, VIX tends to bottom around new Moons.
Lunar eclipses are marked with the red down arrow. Some people observed that there is increased uncertainty, volatility around these eclipses. A recent article suggests that analysts are more pessimistic about earnings projections around lunar eclipses:
In any case, these are exciting ideas to study. VIX spectral analysis using two methods reveals periodic components of 20 and 22 trading days (TDs). The average of the two estimates is 21 TD, which is approximately 21*7/5=29.4 calendar days (CDs). Fairly close to 29.5 new Moons cycle. So maybe there is some “secret” connection between new Moons and VIX cycles.
Sentiment
How do you explain very pessimistic consumer confidence in the chart below?
My guess is most ordinary people do not own Bitcoin and Magnificent 7.
Puzzling chart anyway, it looks like the sentiment in real economy is a mirror image of the one in the financial, or speculative markets.
Maybe an answer, in part, to my dilemma above is how much people spend on servicing their mortgages. If households spend >35% of their income on mortgage payments, there is not much flexibility with the remaining budget.
Or maybe this one is also a partial explanation related to excessive mortgage payments due to the rise of interest rates.
How about credit cards?
Bitcoin or Ethereum?
I posted this ETHBTC cycle composite last week in the premium content. Thought it could be of interest for everyone.
Long-term, multi-year cycles favor ETH. The 40-50 TD cycle dominates swings for possible trading.
Message from our cross-promotion partner:
Money Machine Newsletter
Market Beating Stocks in 5 min. Elite traders narrow down the universe of stocks to their best ideas, delivered weekly to your inbox pre-market.
https://moneymachinenewsletter.substack.com/
eBook: 3-Year US Stock Market Outlook
The stock market will exhibit significant volatility this year, IMO. To prepare for market swings down and up in the next couple of years, read our eBook about the stock market outlook for 2024-2026. To get it for FREE, share the link below with your friends, family and on social media and if 2 friends subscribe to BraVoCycles Newsletter using your link, as confirmed by Beehiiv, you get our 3-Year US Stock Market Outlook eBook FREE! We’re excited to share more of our content with your friends and family and the cutting edge technical analysis in our eBook with you.
Let Us Know Why You Like BraVoCycles
We are cognizant of your busy schedule. But we take our newsletter seriously. Please comment and help us improve the quality of the newsletter.
Describe in 1-2 sentences what you like about Market Timing & Price Projections.
Describe in 1-2 sentences what you would like to see changed/improved in Market Timing & Price Projections.
(To leave a comment, open our newsletter on the web and scroll to the end of the newsletter)
Read our Disclaimer
Subscribe to Premium Membership to read the rest.
Become a paying subscriber of Premium Membership to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.
Already a paying subscriber? Sign In
Reply