Tick, Tick, …

Today we will be covering...

• Market Summary

• Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin

• SPY Options Max-Pain

• Tech Bubble?

• Sentiment

• Cycles of Major Indexes

• EW Counts of Major Indexes

• VIX/VXX Update

• Commodities

• Crypto – ETH vs BTC

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Market Summary

The main market indexes continue the pullback/consolidation that started last week. The February seasonality played out. Though, recall that QQQs have negative seasonality until mid-March. Indexes had mostly down bias, but a monster up day last Thursday still brought a small gain to indexes in the 2^nd half. We had a similar situation with cycles in the last couple of months. The 40D and 80D cycles down phases resulted in a sideways move in the market indexes. Typical of strong bull moves.

Although the already-topped option could not be ruled out, ideally, I expect a bounce into early March.

Then, I expect a correction in the next 2-3 months. Cycles, EWT, technicals, and sentiment all support a correction in the intermediate term, but the market is very resilient. Raising cash on the rips is not bad when the market is overbought.

Market data as of 4:07 pm EST on 29 Feb. 2024.

Technical Analysis

Cumulative New High / New Low Line is another view of market breadth.

A longer-term view. It does not look good to me, but it is not a sell trigger by itself, as divergence can last for weeks, even months. It is a yellow/red flag.

Bitcoin

As expected, Bitcoin reversed from the green box target shown yesterday and is now down in an area where it could generate a down target toward 58k. Specifically, sideways to down the next few hours can get Bitcoin below the gray FLD band and generate the target.

Newsletters to check out

Today, I picked some newsletters that cover different investing/trading interests (click the image to check them out):

For my updates between newsletters, follow me on X (formerly Twitter):

SPY Options Max-Pain

SPY max-pain indicates a weakness into mid-March. Trend-wise, it is likely correct; I have some reservations regarding the actual levels of accuracy.

Date 2/29/2024 3/8/2024 3/15/2024 3/22/2024

Max-Pain 500 501 480 498 

Tech Bubble?

Technology stocks, or should I say Magnificent 7, versus S&P500. All-time highs.

Speculation is concentrated in crypto and Nasdaq 100 (Magnificent 7).

Sentiment

Corporate insiders are selling big time!

eBook: 3-Year US Stock Market Outlook

The stock market will exhibit significant volatility this year, IMO. To prepare for market swings down and up in the next couple of years, read our eBook about the stock market outlook for 2024-2026. To get it for FREE, share the link below with your friends, family and on social media and if 2 friends subscribe to BraVoCycles Newsletter using your link, as confirmed by Beehiiv, you get our 3-Year US Stock Market Outlook eBook FREE! We’re excited to share more of our content with your friends and family and the cutting edge technical analysis in our eBook with you.

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