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Market Summary
It has been a challenging couple of months, with indexes changing direction every 1-2 days. Our theory of raising cash into the topping structure was the right call. SPX and NDX are back to early February levels, and Dow and RUT are back to December levels. Sell the rips when the herd is buying euphorically.
We also kept those who like to short the market out of trouble by not declaring the market top until it was the right time to do. I think we nailed the top within a day or so. Similar with Bitcoin.
My multi-pronged approach, using technical and sentiment analysis, EWT, and cycles, will enable me to guide you through the turbulent times ahead. Please read carefully my analysis in the premium content and try to synthesize my findings from different methods to fit your investment style.
Read the rest of our Free and Premium content on the website (click on the button Read Online below).
As for the short-term, my tea leaves suggest that the market can bounce soon and from not much lower levels. Some indexes may have already seen a short-term bottom. The rally/bounce could last up to a couple of weeks, and we will re-evaluate after assessing the strength of the bounce. I suspect it may be a dead cat bounce.
Repeat from before:
Remember that I mentioned several times in the last 2-3 months that in an expected topping formation one should raise cash by selling the rips. Those who followed this strategy did well and got the prices above the present levels. This game scenario is still appropriate.
The short-term analysis is becoming more in line with the intermediate—and long-term analyses, which suggests a reversal is due. The lightning could strike unexpectedly around the tops.
My longer-term expectations do not change. I will repeat from the weekend report: “Despite the market's resiliency and FOMO, I expect a correction in the next 2-4 months, initially.
Market data as of close on 18 Apr. 2024.
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A Follow-Up on NVDA & SOX
They say, “As Apple Goes, the Market Goes.” I would say, “As NVDA Goes, SOX Goes,” at least this year.
NVDA satisfied 20D and 40D cycle price targets, so a bounce is possible, but the 80D target is looming below.
Based on this target, the EW analysis, and the weekly cycle composite I posted before, the outlook for NVDA this year is not very good. An extremely overvalued SOX (relative to SPX) will be affected by NVDA and will experience a similar correction.
Gold EWT Analysis
Do you like gold? This is my EWT analysis. I expect a consolidation in wave (4) but then a rise into 2026. GC, gold futures, should reach the 2,800 range in 2026, followed by a multi-year correction.
A Mayhem in Commodities
Rice is going up. Watch also opportunities in wheat and corn!
And Lumber is going down. Does that suggest anything to you? Housing? Something to pay attention to.
Read our Disclaimer
Cycle Analysis of Major Indexes
The NDX daily dynamic cycle composite suggests a bounce. Whether a dead cat bounce or something more. . .
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