Stock Market Outlook

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· Indexes bounced in 4-th waves from last week's low. 4-th waves, which are most unpredictable due to the various shapes they can take, may have been completed, or maybe an additional push higher might be needed in some indexes.

· After this bounce, some additional bottoming action is expected in the next several days before a bigger bounce in May.

· Then a prolonged drop into October, as I elaborated yesterday.

Market data as of close on 22 Apr. 2024.

Technical Analysis - COMPX

· NASDAQ Composite ($COMPX) has followed the “Stairs UP, Elevator Down” pattern since January. 3.5+ months of gains have been erased in several days, bringing $COMPX to almost Dec’23 highs. Those who were raising cash on rips did well.

· The medium-term (and long-term) technical indicators raised yellow/red flags by evolving negative divergences with respect to price evolution. Some people noticed that while many were in a FOMO state.

· The bigger gray channel nicely contained $COMPX. Brief pokes above the channel UTL were quickly reversed.

· $COMPX broke the smaller gray channel and below the 50D MA, trending below the trend-defining 10D EMA (red). This signifies that the ST and MT trends are down.

· $COMPX is approaching the gray horizontal line support and 100D MA, which may provide an excuse for a bounce. However, I expect considerably lower rates in the MT and LT.

· Regarding EWT, the recent high could be the top of a corrective (B) wave, which would imply a (C) wave below the Oct’22 low. If the alternative green count is in play, then $COMPX is now in wave 4, which will be completed at about 14.1k, ideally, but lower toward 13k is not out of the question.

Gold Update

· Expected correction in GC (gold futures) is progressing. I outlined the expected correction path.

· My target for A is 2,300 and for C/(4) about 2,300+.

Bitcoin

· I went out on the limb in mid-March and called the top on the exact top day. IMO, that was an 18M peak.

· Technical indicators diverged negatively into the peak, signaling a pending reversal.

· Bitcoin has been consolidating sideways since then, absorbing 80D and 40D cycle troughs.

·  Detailed analysis is presented in the premium content …

Although the stock market indexes should be bouncing in May, they may still. . .

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