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There is a lot of excitement and chatter about Bitcoin and crypto, like the Trump administration will be positive for cryptocurrencies.
Fund inflows are dramatic; please see my X post below. Black Rock is introducing options on crypto ETFs. I consider these pieces of news a yellow/red flag.
The question is how long the excitement will last.
We will explore weekly Bitcoin cycles below.
We will continue detailed Bitcoin analysis, including short- and long-term Elliot Wave counts and other details, today and Wednesday in Pro.
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Bitcoin Weekly Cycles
Cycle interpretation can sometimes be very tricky. Here is a Bitcoin example.
The dominant 3.5-year cycle has been looking down since early summer, but recently the Bitcoin price has been “ignoring” it. Why?
A partial reason is that the next most dominant cycle , 89-week (nominal 18-month) has recently turned up and will not peak until mid-2025.
But the Bitcoin price has also been ignoring the cycle composite of these two cycles, as seen below.
There must be more going around.
The chart below shows the cycle composite comprising of all reliable cycles detected on the weekly Bitcoin chart, which does capture some short cycles from the intraday and daily charts.
In this case, we can see that the turns in Bitcoin price follow well the turns in the cycle composite.
It is essential to note that one should not correlate the variations of the amplitude of the cycle composite with proportional variations in the price, as some novice cycle followers often do.
One should focus merely on turning points of the cycle composite as approximate turning points of price.
Long story short, I expect a significant cycle trough in late 2025 or early 2026, as we always need to provide for some margin of error.
Moreover, some cycle may change their attributes by that time due to the principle of variations. For this reason, it is necessary to update cycle projections periodically.
Read some past newsletters featuring Bitcoin.
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Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.
On Sunday, I posted a chart on crypto funds, mostly Bitcoin-related, provided by BofA.
Are these $$$ inflows bullish. Yes, until they are not.
The high inflows typically represent optimistic sentiment, which, from a contrarian point of view, is a yellow flag.
When everyone is invested and the trend reverses, look out below, at least so they say.
#Money is also going into #crypto at an unprecedented rate.
Probably nothing.
#Cryptocurrecny#Cryptomarket#cryptotrading#Bitcoin#cryptocurrencies— BraVoCycles Newsletter (@BraVoCycles)
2:14 AM • Nov 18, 2024
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Look out for Wednesday’s newsletter, we will discuss long bond, i.e TLT ETF.
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