Election Excitement Almost Over?

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Bitcoin – Weekly Cycles

• The chart below shows the dominant 3.5-year cycle overlayed on the weekly Bitcoin’s price chart. One can notice that that the price did not roll over after the cycle peak as in the previous two instances.

• This may be consequence of interaction of shorter cycles from the  weekly and daily charts.

• But it can also be a consequence of fundamental developments that can even distort some of the shorter cycles.

• In any case, this powerful cycles should be putting pressure on Bitcoin until Q4’25 when it is expected to reverse from the cycle trough.  

• The chart below shows a cycle composite comprised of several shorter cycles detected on the weekly chart, in addition to the 3.5-year cycle.

• Now we can see how the wiggles in price trajectory follow the wiggles in the cycle composite most of the time.

• People who are not experienced in cycles often assume that a large change in the cycle composite will correspond to a large change in price. That is not the case.

• One should only look at the turning points in the cycle composite as potential approximate turning points in price.

• Why did I say approximate? For several reasons.

• Cycles do vary over time, there is a measurement/detection error and there is impact of cycles from different time scales that may not all be able to account when consider say a weekly chart.

• For example, from the weekly chart we cannot detect shorter cycles from the daily and intraday charts.

• Long story short, the cycle from the weekly chart suggest a pressure on the bitcoin into 2025.

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Bitcoin – Daily Cycles

• The daily cycle composite suggests a reversal soon followed by another up phase until early Feb’24.

• Then its down phase will be in synch with the weekly cycles down phase.

• One more comment about cycles. Cycles alone should not be used in trading decisions.

• They should be combined with other methods such as technical, sentiment and Elliot Wave analysis. When all these methods send same messages we get most reliable trading decisions.

• In our premium newsletters we use all these methods to identify trading opportunities.

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• Consider following us on YouTube in addition to the newsletter and X, as we will try to post videos daily.

  • For example, a couple of days we posted a video about possible SPX topping.

  • Alternatives to the Elliott Wave count in the video are discussed in today’s premium newsletters.

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