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Today we will be covering...

• Market Summary

• Technical Analysis of QQQs

• Liquidity

• Sentiment

• Crypto

• Cycle Analysis of Major Indexes

• EW Analysis of Major Indexes

• VIX/VXX Update

• Commodities – NG & WEAT

Market Summary

For the second time this week “smart money” (institutions?) sold the market in the last 30 mins before the close. They say that “dumb money” (retail) trades in the first 30 mins and “smart money” trades in the last 30 mins.

However, the drop was a 3-wave corrective structure so far. SPX and NDX also had 3 waves up since Tuesday. So either the consolidation from Friday is still in progress in a potential triangle form, or some other structure, or one more wave up to a new high could complete 5 waves up from Tuesday and in a bigger picture 5 waves up from the Oct’23 low.

Based on the detailed analysis in the premium part, it is reasonable to expect some additional push higher.

I mentioned in the Liquidity section below that Bank Term Funding Program sunsets on 11 March, new Moon on 10 March and VIX cycle trough expected around 11 March. It would be very fitting to have the market top around 11 March, +/-. We shall see.

The short-term analysis is getting more in line with the intermediate- and long-term analyses, which suggest a reversal is due. The lighting could strike unexpectedly around tops. Raising cash in overbought situations is not a bad idea.

My longer-term expectations do not change. I will repeat from the weekend report: “Despite the market's resiliency and FOMO, I expect a correction in the next 2-4 months, initially.

Market data as of 4 pm EST on 7 Mar. 2024.

Technical Analysis of QQQs

It is rare that AAPL and QQQ diverge!

The gap will eventually close, and I think I know how.

What do you think as to how the gap will close?

They say AAPL is a market leader, “As Appl Goes, the Market Goes!”

Notice the LT negative divergences between QQQ and its RSI → loss of momentum! Not positive for sure.

Vertical yellow arrows (hard to see in this ToS chart) in late Dec and Feb denote DeMark Sequential-9 sell signals. They are sometimes early but often good signals of reversals.

Note that rallies in late Dec and since late Jan were clearly on declining volume. Not positive, to the contrary.

QQQ is wedging. A characteristic of ending moves, not of a mid-rally moves.

For my updates between newsletters, follow me on X (formerly Twitter):

Liquidity

The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) has been a major source of liquidity but it is set to expire on 11 March 2024.

Recall the new Moon is on March 10^th and VIX about 30D cycle is around 11 March! Coincidences for a market reversal?

Sentiment

CNN’s Fear & Greed – Similarities to the Summer of 2023 before the downturn?

Crypto

As of 4 pm EST on 7 Mar, 2024.

Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed is back to the extreme range!

Bitcoin needs to break through the gray FLD (forward line of demarcation) band to start generating lower targets. The closing bar values avoided to achieve that miraculously 2 days ago.

Else it can pop to a higher high into this weekend or early next week.

eBook: 3-Year US Stock Market Outlook

The stock market will exhibit significant volatility this year, IMO. To prepare for market swings down and up in the next couple of years, read our eBook about the stock market outlook for 2024-2026. To get it for FREE, share the link below with your friends, family and on social media and if 2 friends subscribe to BraVoCycles Newsletter using your link, as confirmed by Beehiiv.

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