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- Weekend Report – Part I
Weekend Report – Part I
Review of TSLA, Crypto, Natural Gas, and EURJPY
BraVoCycles Newsletter
January 18, 2026
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Today we will be covering...
Announcements: Weekend Report Part II, covering the stock market, will be published on Monday. All major U.S. stock markets will be closed on Monday, January 19, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
Today, as a part of a series of Magnificent 7 posts, we will review Tesla (TSLA).
Tomorrow, we will examine Microsoft.
FED's Beige Book Jan'26 - Long Story Short
National Summary
Economic activity grew slightly in most Fed Districts. 3 saw no change, 1 declined. This is an improvement from previous cycles.
Consumer spending rose, boosted by holiday shopping, especially among higher-income groups. Lower-income consumers remain cautious. Auto sales were flat or down.
Manufacturing was mixed. Nonfinancial services were steady or up. Banking was stable or improving.
Residential real estate and lending softened.
Agriculture was mostly stable.
Energy demand was flat to slightly down.
Outlooks are mildly optimistic, expecting slight growth.
Labor Markets
Jobs were mostly flat.
Temp workers use rose for flexibility. Hiring was mainly for vacancies, not expansion. Skilled labor remains hard to find.
AI use is rising, but its current impact is limited.
Wages grew moderately and are back to "normal."
Prices
Prices increased moderately in most Districts.
Tariff costs are rising, and some firms are passing them on.
Retail and restaurants hold back due to price-sensitive customers.
Energy and insurance costs strain margins.
Firms see price growth moderating but staying high.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
TSLA – Elliott Wave Counts
TSLA played out largely as expected; we had several consecutive great calls on TSLA’s reversal points over the last couple of years.
At the December peak, TSLA exhibited negative divergences in RSI and MACD indicators, which confirmed the bearish outlook.
Right now, it is squeezed between the 10D EMA and 50D MA from above, and 100D MA from below; IMO, at least an intermediate-term trend is down.
Unfortunately, both the black and red Elliott Wave counts are still alternatives, in part because of the double bottom in April’2025.
The ideal target for black circle-b is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which rhymes with the triangle apex.
Under the red count, TSLA should target below the April low.
We will not be able to delineate between the black and the red count until we see more wave structure on the downside.
Thus, we will have to use more guidance from time-cycles turning points and cycle price projection targets.
I will review these in the TSLA Deep Dive section in the Pro newsletter for those who might be interested.
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