Is the Top Around the Corner

Table of Contents

• Summary

• Technical Analysis

• Sentiment

• Buzz On The Street

• Cycles X-Rays: SPX, VXX

• Major Indexes EW Counts and Price Projections

• VXX Update

• Commodities Corner: Nat. Gas, Soybeans

• Magnificent 7, Part II: – NVDA, MSFT

Summary

As of 2 pm EST on 24 January, 2024:

• So far, things have evolved with stock market indexes and Bitcoin as expected;

• The dynamic cycle analysis suggests topping about now, this week; always need to provide for some +/- tolerance;

• The top may be in according to some EW count alternatives or one more micro down-up sequence (which may have started) in most major indexes;

• The game should raise cash on the pop-ups, or as traders say, sell the rips (STRs);

• A major top, at least in the intermediate-term, is in the making;

• The next cycle low of significance for major indexes and many leading stocks is in March-April.

Technical Analysis

• SPX is flirting with the trendline (TL) connecting the 1987 crash low and the 2002 bear market low;

• Will it be rejected by the TL?

  • In my opinion, affirmatively YES, based on various things I am looking at;

• Otherwise, there is a significant loss of momentum present on the weekly and monthly charts, as well as several technical indicators suggesting an imminent top; we have beaten these indicators to death (see previous issues), but let us also look at another one we have not looked at recently.

• Figure 2 shows SPX versus NYSE McClellan Summation Index (MCCI);

  • MCCI is a measure of momentum of the underlying breadth of the market;

  • Its turns are usually coincidental with SPX turn, and it is an excellent trend indicator;

• Right now, MCCI is pointing down while SPX is still pushing up, similarly as at the 2020 and 2022 tops;

  • As a matter of fact, MCCI was pointing down the entire 2021 while SPX was going up, which was unusual but happens when the internals are not good and the market is driven by a small number of larger capitalization stocks.

Sentiment

• Nothing new on the sentiment front; investors are still optimistic/greedy..

Buzz On The Street

• Is Grayscale Takeover Bait Amid ETF Battle?

• Netflix Soars as Earnings Highlight Dominance in 'Streaming Wars'

• China lowers bank reserve ratio, boosting stimulus as growth lags

• What’s Apple Up To? Apple Ramps Up R&D Intensity to Pre-iPhone Levels

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