To Be or Not to Be

Is MSFT Leading?

BraVoCycles Newsletter
October 27, 2024

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Microsoft - MSFT

We looked at MSFT a few times from an intermediate-term (IT) perspective, including identifying July’s top.
MSFT is one of most important stocks for Nasdaq and stock market in general.
Both daily and weekly cycles suggest that MSFT rolled over, regardless of the EW count. Refer to our YouTube video below.
The chart below is a long-term (LT) Elliott Wave (EW) chart of MSFT since going public.
Notice from the negative RSI divergence that MSFT has been losing momentum for a few years.
It is likely that MSFT has completed wave III which would imply a long duration wave IV correction as outlined in the chart.
Notice that the length of circle-5 is comparable to the length of circle-1, which is in line with EW guidelines.
The approximate timeline of the sub-waves of wave IV is based on my estimate of very long cycles, including the 11-year sunspot cycle recently discussed.
Alternatively, July’s peak can be just green (1) of circle-5 of V.
From the IT perspective we expect initial correction to about gray dashed line, whether it would be green (2) or (A) per black count, likely some time in 2026 as per weekly cycles.
Referring to the video again, notice that the Head & Shoulders pattern projection is just below the dashed gray line.
How will we decide whether it is black or green count?
Below the ticker gray line, the origin of green (1) or circle-5, the green count will be invalidated.
From a trading perspective, MSFT should bounce from about 300 level +/- in either black (B) or green (3), and above July’s top would be a confirmation of the green count.

Check out some older newsletters from the past 1.5 months discussing MSFT

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A couple of days ago we posted on YouTube a technical and cycle analysis of MSFT capturing a 12-month outlook.

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