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Today we will be covering...

  • Today, we will discuss lithium prospects. Lithium is used for batteries in consumer electronics and electric vehicles, grid-scale energy storage systems, and other applications. In the Pro newsletter, we will examine the largest lithium-related stock.

  • Yesterday, NVDA delivered better earnings than estimates (excluding H20 extra charges). Investors will ponder whether growth prospects justify high PE and PS ratios. 

  • Tariff-related spike in major indices in after-hours trading session - The Manhattan-based Court of International Trade has reportedly blocked President Trump's proposed "Liberation Day" tariffs.

  • The Trump Administration will likely appeal the Court of International Trade’s block of President Trump’s “Liberation Day" tariffs. What other issues may arise? We shall see. It would be good to get full clarity.

Lithium Prospects

  • Lithium carbonate, a dominant lithium compound used for batteries, has declined in price by almost 90% since 2023.

  • Stated reasons are overcapacity in lithium production and a slowdown in electronic vehicles (EVs) sales in 2023-24.

  • Is this the end of lithium? What are the prospects of lithium-related stocks?

  • Let us explore more.

  • According to web search results, batteries for EVs consume about 50-60% of lithium. 

  • The chart below shows actual and estimated EV sales until 2030.

  • EV sales are estimated at 20 million units in 2025. Multiple sources estimate that 40 million or more EVs will be sold in 2030. That corresponds to an annualized growth of about 15%.

  • This could relieve the pressure on lithium prices. 

  • But there are other uses of lithium, some of which may become more significant in the future.

  • Beyond EVs (say ~55% of demand), the main drivers of lithium consumption in 2025 are consumer electronics (20–25%), grid-scale energy storage systems (ESS) (10–15%), ceramics and glass (5–10%), lubricating greases (3–5%), pharmaceuticals (<1–2%), and emerging applications (aerospace, alloys, ~1–2%). 

  • ESS shows the fastest non-EV growth (20–30% annually), while electronics and ceramics provide stability amid lithium oversupply. In several years, ESS may become the dominant sector for lithium consumption. 

  • This research is not meant to be exhaustive but to trigger your curiosity. Please do your own research, as there is plenty of online information.

  • The key question is how the lithium consumption in the future may impact lithium-related stocks.

  • Today, in the Pro newsletter, we will examine Albermarle (ALB), one of the biggest lithium related stocks.

  • In the next issue, we will look at a few additional lithium-related stocks.

Sentiment & Technical Analysis

  • The CNN’s Fear & Greed Index was unchanged at 65.

  • I would like to bring to your attention our indicator pair below that warned us about price reversals before.

  • Specifically, when the Net New 52-week Highs and Lows exhibit divergence relative to the McClellan Summation Index, a reversal in SPX may occur soon. This divergence is not a sell signal by itself.

  • Of course, this is just one of the indicators. Checking other technical indicators hinting at SPX trend reversal is always helpful.

  • We will check another one on Sunday.

BraVoCycles on X

  • Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

    • The Decennial Pattern applied to this decade.

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