Stock Market Whipsaws Post-FED

FED Will Be Watching Data

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Today we will be covering...

  • Today, we will examine a possible long-term opportunity in wheat and other agricultural commodities.

  • The FED did not change rates. The FED will be watching data: “The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”

  • It looks like the FED wants to delay the rate change decision, but it seemingly did not clarify which data will primarily affect its decisions.

Wheat

  • Is it a good idea to recycle some gold profits into wheat?

  • It likely is. 

  • It is unusual that wheat trades at such a discount to gold.

  • Commodities are cyclical. Something might happen that will cause wheat to spike eventually.

  • The question is when a reversal might come. We will see what the cycles suggest.

  • We will look at corn in the Pro content.

  • The cycles from the weekly wheat futures (ZW) chart suggest that ZW can start an uptrend any time now.

  • The daily cycle composite of ZW suggests a reversal might be possible within a month or so.

  • A mini capitulation would be ideal, but often it is a rounded bottom.

  • Wheat ETF, WEAT, satisfied all cycle down projections, although it still has some downside room within its 80D cycle target.

  • This is supportive of the rounding bottom thesis for wheat.

Sentiment & Technical Analysis

  • The CNN’s Fear & Greed Index remained unchanged on the FED Day.

  • 5-day PCR came down nicely from 1.0. 

  • Although it may bounce somewhat, I would prefer to see it closer to 0.6 before the next bigger stock market downturn.

BraVoCycles on X

  • Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

    • It should read “Secular 75-year decline…”

    • This is more than the outsourcing of manufacturing to China. 

    • A significant part is a transition to the service, and recently, the information/knowledge economy.

  • Have you heard of Palantir (PLTR)?

  • A lot of internet chatter about it.

  • But the fundamentals and cycles suggest caution with long positions.

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