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Liberation Day Tariffs – Buy the Rumor, Sell the News
BraVoCycles Newsletter
April 03, 2025
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Today we will be covering...
"Liberation Day" Tariffs selloff in the futures - One of the better "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" examples.
DJT said the US would be nicer with reciprocal tariffs than other countries were to the US.
Investors and traders were buying hard every pullback and rallied SPX into the announcement, then sold the futures hard.
Today, we will examine the gold mining stocks ETF, GDX.
Gold Mining Stocks - GDX
Approximately 1.5 years ago, I made a bullish call for GDX to catch up with gold and achieve significant gains.
It has almost doubled since then, and it appears to have somewhat more upside potential.
My best guess of the Elliott Wave pattern is captured in the chart below.
It appears that GDX is in a two-decade correction since its 2011 peak.
It still needs a 4-5 sequence to complete (C) of circle-B (Primary-B).
IT is still in an uptrend, i.e. above 10-month EMA and 50-month MA.
The ideal target for 5/(C) is the red oval which is a confluence of 1) gray technical resistance, 2) 78.6% retracement of circle-A, 3) (C)=(A) (green 100% Fibonacci level), and 4) 5 of (C) is 200% expansion of 1-2 of (C).
The first indication of a change of trend after circle B is completed will be the break of 10M EMA and the black price channel.
Circle-C should target a level below the 2016 low, i.e., below circle-A.
Sentiment & Technical Analysis
The CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is still in Extreme Fear.
If the tariff news was released during regular market hours, it would have probably edged deeper into Extreme Fear. Maybe something like the below.
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