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Stock Market Waiting for FED’s Decision
IWill FED Surprise Markets?
BraVoCycles Newsletter
December 09, 2025
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Today, we will discuss the FED and bond yields in both Free and Pro newsletters.
The FOMC decision is this week on Wednesday.
Based on the FED Funds Rate future, CME’s FED Watch estimates 90% odds of a rate cut of 0.25%.
Anything else will be a surprise for market participants.
Who’s really in control—The FED, or the markets?
Look closely at the 3-month Treasury yield vs. the FED Funds Rate.
Most chart watchers will spot it: the FED seems to follow the market, not lead.
But there is a twist—some believe the market is always one step ahead, pricing in the FED’s next move and making it look like the FED is reacting.
So, which is it: Does the FED drive, or respond to market rates?
I’ll let you judge.
US 10-Year Yields - Dominant Cycle
Markets are laser-focused on the Fed’s next move.
Odds of a 0.25% rate cut are nearing 90%, as mentioned above; Everyone expects rates to go down.
But here’s what the headlines miss: Cycles don’t lie.
The dominant 234-week rhythm in bonds points to a major move higher for 10-year Treasury yields—regardless of short-term noise.
The real story?
Rate cuts now won’t stop yields from rising in 2026.
The cycle composite with the three dominant TNX cycles is somewhat different in the short term. We will look at that in more detail in the Pro newsletter, where we will also examine TLT, 2Y, and 30Y yields.
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This post is fascinating.
What’s Next for the Stock Market?
Expected choppy trading continued and may last until the FOMC decision on Wednesday.
Be cognizant of typical FED Day whipsaws. . .
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