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Stock Market Under Pressure
NVDA & Powell Combo Pushed Indexes Lower
BraVoCycles Newsletter
April 17, 2025
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First negative NVDA comments on Tuesday afternoon caused a gap down yesterday, then Jerome Powell's negative comments solidified a downtrend day.
Stock Market Peak vs Recession
There is much chatter about whether the US economy will go into recession.
The stock market usually peaks before a recession starts and bottoms before a recession ends.
The chart below illustrates the average recession start and end times relative to stock market peaks and bottoms.
If the February top was a stock market peak, we can expect signs of recession in August, if historical data is of any guidance.
Sentiment & Technical Analysis
CNN’s Fear & Greed Index declined deeper into Extreme Fear.
SPX gapped below 10D EMA (brown), signifying that the short-term trend is down.
It is also below the black trend line resistance/s.
Swing direction defining McClellan Summation Index (bottom window) appears to be bottoming, but it has not yet crossed above its 5D EMA, which I consider a signal line.
It appears that more pullback is possible before another swing higher.
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