Stock Market Top – Are We There Yet?

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NAAIM Index

• The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Index* Update as of Wednesday this week. 

• Managers started to pull in their horns. 

• The NAAIM Index usually peaks slightly before, or coincidentally with, the S&P 500.

• My expectations for future trajectories of the NAAIM Index and SPX have been added. 

*The NAAIM Index is a weekly sentiment indicator that reflects the average equity exposure of active investment managers in the US stock market. It's calculated by surveying NAAIM members about their current equity allocations, which can range from 0% (fully in cash) to 200% (fully leveraged long). The index is used as a contrarian indicator, with high readings potentially signaling overbought conditions and low readings potentially signaling oversold conditions.

Sentiment & Technical Analysis

• The CNN’s Fear & Greed Index remains in Extreme Greed, just barely.

• QQQ, the NDX ETF, shows signs of losing momentum and a potential topping, at least in the short term.

• Consider the QQQ advance of about 9% since late May.

• RSI has been negatively diverging.

• The volume has been declining.

• MFI has been negatively diverging.

• None of these favor the bullish case in the short term.

BraVoCycles on X

• Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

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