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Will April 2nd Tariff Day +/- Produce a Reversal?

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Today we will be covering...

  • I would like to apologize for the service interruption. I spent two out of the last three weeks in the hospital.

  • It will take me several weeks to fully recover. 

  • Unfortunately, I was unable to complete one test and may still need to return to the hospital for a few days to do it.

  • While in the hospital, I was rewinding my “guidance movie” of the last several months. Here is a non-exhaustive summary of my “calls.”

  • Last summer, I warned of extreme relative valuation and a topping of the Semiconductor Index (SOX). I also warned that it would lead NDX and the general market to lower and result in a significant market correction over time. So far, so good.

  • I accurately predicted the July top and August bottom in 2024.

  • In late November and early December, I alerted Premium subscribers that it was a good time to raise some cash.

  • Caught December low and February high. Since the December low, I have been alerting Premium subscribers to a cash-raising opportunity and a potential market top in the week of February OPEX. That call was amazingly accurate 22 months ahead.

  • In late January and early February, I reviewed Magnificent 7 stocks and warned about a potential topping for the majority of them. That analysis was very timely.

  • After the market gained on FED Day in March, I opined that I would not be shocked if the gains were reversed the next day, with weakness into March OPEX and the end of March. All happened. Clairvoyance? 

  • There were many other great calls, too numerous to mention all.

  • Today, I will review some technical indicators that helped anticipate SPX price reversals in the past.

Sentiment & Technical Analysis

  • The CNN’s Fear & Greed Index has returned to Extreme Fear after spending a couple of days in the lower Fear zone.

  • I suspect it may dip a bit lower before a tradable bounce.

  • If the S&P 500 makes a new low this week, which is likely, the McClellan Volume Summation Index will likely exhibit a positive divergence with respect to it, as well as relative to the net 52-week highs and lows.

  • In the past, such divergences led to price reversals.

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